WTO: Global Trade Could Rise 3% In 2025

The World Trade Organization (WTO) on Thursday nudged up its forecast for global trade volumes this year and said a further pick up to three per cent growth was likely in 2025, assuming Middle East conflicts are kept in check.

Global trade recovered this year from a 2023 slump driven by high inflation and rising interest rates, the WTO report said. In April, the global trade watchdog forecast a 2.6 per cent increase in volumes, which it revised up on Thursday to 2.7 per cent.

“We are expecting a gradual recovery in global trade for 2024, but we remain vigilant of potential setbacks, particularly the potential escalation of regional conflicts like those in the Middle East,” said WTO DirectorGeneral Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala in a statement.

“The impact could be most severe for the countries directly involved, but they may also indirectly affect global energy costs and shipping routes.”

Israel’s blitz against Lebanon’s Hezbollah movement in recent weeks, following a year-long war against Hamas in Gaza, has stoked fears of an inexorable slide towards a pan-Middle Eastern war.