Tony Chukwunyem 
The World Bank, yesterday, revised Nigeria’s growth forecast for this year up to 3.6 percent from its January projection of 3.5 per cent.
In its twice-yearly Global Economic Prospects report, the bank maintained its growth forecast for the country next year at 3.7 per cent, stating that domestic reforms have helped to boost investment which has supported growth in the services sector.
Specifically, the report said: “Growth in Nigeria is forecast to strengthen to 3.6 per cent in 2025 and to an average of 3.8 per cent in 2026-27. Following monetary policy tightening in 2024 to address rapid currency depreciation, inflation is projected to decline gradually.
“Domestic reforms have helped spur investment, supporting growth in the services sector, especially in financial services and information and communication technology.
Services activity will continue to be the main driver of growth, while the industrial sector will remain constrained by subdued crude oil production as last year’s slight rebound wanes.”
On the outlook for SubSaharan Africa (SSA), the World Bank revised the region’s growth forecast for this year down to 3.7 per cent from the 4.1 per cent it projected in January.
Similarly, it lowered the region’s growth forecast for 2026 to 4.1 per cent from its earlier projection of 4.3 per cent. According to the report: “The region’s outlook has worsened following the deterioration in global conditions, dampened by the rise in trade barriers, heightened trade policy uncertainty, and weakening confidence.
Although the direct effects of escalating trade tensions and a weakening global investor appetite are expected to be moderate, the outlook for SSA is affected by global spillovers from these shocks, primarily through lower global commodity demand.”
Still, the report said: “Against a backdrop of weakening Emerging Market and Developing Economy (EMDE) growth, SSA is one of two regions where growth is projected to increase through the forecast horizon.”
Indeed, citing higher tariffs and heightened uncertainty, which it said, posed a “significant headwind” for nearly all economies, the World Bank slashed its global growth forecast for 2025 by 0.4 percentage point to 2.3 per cent.
Lowering its forecasts for nearly 70 per cent of all economies – including the United States, China and Europe, as well as six emerging market regions – from the levels it projected just six months ago before US President Donald Trump took office, the bank, however, stopped short of forecasting a recession, but said global economic growth this year would be its weakest outside of a recession since 2008.
The bank said that global gross domestic product growth was expected to average just 2.5 per cent , the slowest pace of any decade since the 1960s, adding that it projects global trade to grow by 1.8 per cent in 2025, down from 3.4 per cent in 2024 and roughly a third of its 5.9percent level in the 2000s.
Citing tariff increases and tight labor markets, the Washington-based bank said global inflation was expected to reach 2.9 per cent in 2025, remaining above pre-COVID levels.
The bank, which warned that global growth could be weaker than projected if global trade tensions were to escalate further, however, said that: “The direct effects of the increased US trade barriers on SSA economies are expected to be contained, as the region exports relatively few manufacturing goods to the United States.”
