New Telegraph-Admin 
Anthony Ubani is the Executive Director of Fix Politics. In this interview, he speaks on the organisation’s petition against President Bola Tinubu over his declaration of emergency rule in Rivers State and the politics of the 2027 General Election, among other issues
You said that the emergency rule in Rivers State is not only unconstitutional but anti-constitution. What did you mean by that? It is unconstitutional but it’s also against the constitution of the Federal Republic of Nigeria. When you look at the issues, why do you have this entire furore?
Past presidents have spoken, President Goodluck Jonathan and President Olusegun Obasanjo as well as a former President of the Senate, Adolphus Wabara have spoken. Several former governors and incumbents have also spoken. The opposition party, the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), has gone to court.
What is it about this that has created such excitement in the country; negative excitement if I must emphasize? There are two key issues specifically that have created this needless furore in the country. One is the unconstitutional nature of the state of emergency.
The 1999 Constitution (as amended) states very clearly the conditions that have to exist for a president to declare a state of emergency.
The president of the Nigerian Bar Association (NBA) has come out clearly and made it clear in no ambiguous terms that those conditions were not met. He also made it clear that the declaration is unconstitutional.
Secondly, the suspension of a duly elected governor of a state, and the suspension of duly elected members of a state House of Assembly is an executive overreach by the President. There is nowhere, directly or indirectly, where the constitution says that the president can suspend an elected governor or elected members of a House of Assembly.
So, when you see this kind of situation, the signal and the optics of it are very clear. If we allow this to go, then the political class will be emboldened.
What’s going to happen tomorrow? Perhaps the President will wake up and suspends 24 governors and members of 24 Houses of Assembly and anoint some military administrators to take over. We might as well go back to military rule and know that we are back in military rule.
One of your CSO collegiate groups, Socio-Economic Rights and Accountability Project (SERAP), has taken Tinubu’s government to court over the emergency rule Rivers State. Are you optimistic that you’ll get a fair day in court and that the court will take your argument seriously?
We are very optimistic. We did make the point, if you listen to our statement at the press briefing, we expect that there will be multiple court cases, and multiple litigations, and we did call on the judiciary to ensure that these cases are attended to on their merit and not on technicalities.
This is a constitutional issue. Take note that in the history of our democracy, no sitting president has removed a sitting governor of an opposition party by whatever means, whether by state of emergency or whatever you want to call it.
This is the first time that a sitting president of another party goes to a state governed by another party and removes an opposition governor.
This is very dangerous for our democracy. So, the President needs to be called to order and the National Assembly needs to be called to order, for this decision to be reversed.
Many Nigerians will argue that legal pathways may not necessarily correct this move. What are you most afraid of now?
What you’ve just stated clearly is a legitimate fear for us given the past behaviour of the judiciary, with some of the very curious rulings we’ve had from the judiciary. But we believe that based on precedence, this is not the first time we’ve had a state of emergency in Nigeria.
The judiciary has ruled severally on this matter, so there are precedents in this matter. It would be difficult to see how the judiciary will invent, and I use that word deliberately, a ruling that will sustain this state of emergency. For you to come up with a ruling that will sustain it, means you are throwing the constitution away.
Section 305 has zero ambiguity and it is very clear. Section 188 is also equally clear; how you can remove an elected governor, how you can remove an elected House of Assembly.
So, I don’t know, maybe, they want to reinvent the 1999 Constitution, or what magic they are going to do to be able to sustain this state of emergency.
Do you agree with the opposition that says that this appears to be an attempt to take over the structures of an important swing state ahead of the 2027 elections?
We call it an executive coup. It is a coup because any time you dismantle democratically elected governments; it is a coup. When the military does it, we call it a coup. If an elected president does it; it still is a coup.
Until we have the courage, the conviction and the character to change the constitution… it will be difficult to see how this country will move forward
The point is clear, and I believe if you listen to commentaries across the nation, whether by former presidents or opinion leaders and ordinary citizens, it is clear that the emergency rule has nothing to do with the well-being of citizens.
It has nothing to do with the wellbeing of democracy and the polity of Nigeria. It is clearly about politics of 2027. It is, however, dirty politics leading to 2027.
How big, a political moment, is this then for Nigeria?
It is huge and that’s why citizens are rising. That’s why the civil society is rising up because we’re not going to allow this to stand. It’s unprecedented in our democracy that a president will overreach in this particular manner.
If you follow what has been happening in the polity, you can see that the President is falling with some of his initial supporters, particularly from the northern side.
Right now, nobody is even sure of what is happening between the President and his vice, if they’re even on talking terms. If you follow news reports, it appears that the North is not happy with the President. What did the President win the 2023 election with?
The lowest margin we’ve had in the history of Nigeria, approximately about eight million votes, didn’t even get to two digits. He lost Lagos, lost all the major capitals of Nigeria, and he managed to win Rivers State. Although every reasonable Nigerian believes that he lost that state and so clearly.
So, if you look at it from a political point of view, the permutations are very clear. He is probably not going to do so well in some of the Northern states that he did well in 2023. He probably also might not do so well in some of the other Southern states he did except by some miracle, he gets this economy pumping before 2027, which I know is not going to happen.
And even if it was on its way to happening, this whole confusion created by the state of emergency has brought distrust in the system.
So, what’s the point now? What do they have to do? It is clear to them that if they lose Rivers, there’s no calculation through which he can stay as president because it is a very important swing state with huge votes.
So, if he loses Rivers, it’s over because it’s very clear right now that he is not going to get the same quality of votes he got from the North come 2027.
It becomes critical that a Southern state like Rivers should be consolidated. To use the language of the politicians, by all means, it’s a do-or-die affair. So, they must keep Rivers State within the All Progressives Congress (APC).
In your assessment, what does that tell you about the democratic environment heading towards 2027?
It is yet to be seen. First, let me say that we have been encouraged recently by two bills that have passed the second reading in the National Assembly, the Early Voting Bill and the Diaspora Bill.
These are bills that if they do pass, and we believe they will pass, will increase the space for citizens to vote, make it easier for citizens to vote, bring in more people, and anything that enlarges the democratic space is good for democracy.
INEC has enormous difficulty managing the votes within Nigeria. What more when it’s sort of in another country altogether?
Yes, you have a point there but don’t forget the Early Voting Bill has nothing to do with the Diaspora Bill. That will allow a whole lot of people, particularly first responders and other workers, to be able to vote before the election per se.
So basically, it’s going to increase the pool, and that is important.
But coming back to your question specifically, I think that it’s impossible for any objective, honest, and fair analyst to postulate that the elections are going to be free and fair. We’ve not had free and fair elections since the beginning of this republic.
So, I don’t have any logical basis. I don’t have any facts. I don’t have any evidence on the table to suggest that by some magic, 2027 is going to be free and fair.
But it is the hope and expectation of civil society that will continue to push, continue to encourage the political class to lower the temperature and allow this democracy that so many died for to work.
Is there a way to strengthen the independence of the electoral commission?
There are so many ways to do it but the critical point here is: Will the political class do what is needful for the electoral management body to be independent?
They won’t. They won’t allow the judiciary to be independent. They won’t allow the police to be independent.
Politicians won’t allow the electoral management body to be independent because those are the institutions that they capture and compromise to stay in power. So, that’s where we are in Nigeria. Everyone knows that’s the truth.
That’s where we are. And we’ll continue to push, to advocate, and to work with relevant stakeholders to see how we can get change and reform happen in Nigeria. But let me just chip this in.
There’s so much talk about the 2027 elections but I will just say that the biggest challenge we have in Nigeria is not the elections.
It’s the constitution, this same constitution that the President has just thrown to the dustbin. Until we have the courage, the conviction and the character to change the constitution, particularly through the National Assembly, not an amendment of the constitution, mark my words, it will difficult to see how this country will move forward.
