TS from the Sidelines 
Nigeria as we all know is a very unique country, which is why what is usually seen as anomalies in almost every other country is a norm here. For instance, for almost two decades we have been estimating the size of our population because no proper census has been conducted.
Everyone knows that census is crucial for governments and various organisations as it provides vital information about the population, enabling informed decision-making in areas like resource allocation, policy formulation, and political representation.
It also helps in understanding the population’s size, structure, and distribution, which is essential for planning and development and yet for 19 years the nation has not been able to carry out this very important exercise – instead we have been relying on estimates!
Sadly even the last official exercise carried out in March 2006 ended in controversy as it was marred by political issues.
For example, in Lagos State, which had conducted its own “parallel” census in collaboration with the National Population Commission (NPC), the then state governor, Bola Tinubu, called for a recount because the state and NPC had different figures: while the local count put the state’s population at more than 17.5 million the NPC claimed to have counted 9.0 million.
Other states like Abia and Nasarawa and the Federal Capital Territory, Abuja, also had issues with the NPC’s figures.
However, in response to critics, the chairman of the NPC tried to appeal to reason. “We cannot simply sit down and allocate certain figures to ourselves simply because we want to please ourselves,” said Alhaji Sa-mu’ila Danko Makama. Any state that publishes its own census, he pointed out, has committed a breach of the constitution. The NPC is the only body mandated by law to conduct the census in Nigeria
On his part, President Olusegun Obasanjo called those who disputed the results “confusionists,” adding that when they saw the census didn’t break the country, they sought to sow confusion. And he washed his hands off the issue, saying: “If you like, use it, [if] you don’t like [it], leave it.”
By the way, the 2006 census recorded a total population of 140,431,790. This included 71,345,488 males and 69,086,302 females, with a sex ratio of 103.3.
It also put the population of Kano as the highest in the country with Kano the most populous state with 9.4 million, followed by Lagos (9.0 million). Northern states accounted for 75 million people, while the southern states were home to 65 million.
According to universal conventions, head-counts are usually held 10 years apart, which meant that the next exercise in Nigeria should have taken place in 2016. But, due to lack of funds, it was then shifted to 2018 and then rescheduled for 2022 and thereafter postponed again so that it would take place in 2023.
Incidentally, census in the ‘Giant of Africa’ tends to be controversial, and figures are often manipulated for political and economic reasons. Representation in the House of Representatives is based on these results, with each state receiving constituencies based on state population, and each constituency is at least, in theory, supposed to represent a roughly equal population.
Census results also determine how much money is allocated to state and local governments.
Unfortunately, counting ourselves has been a recurring problem, but it did not start with the 2006 exercise. Result of the first post-independence census conducted in 1962 was withdrawn. The reliability of the 1963 census was questioned. The results of the 1973 census were discredited and never saw the light of day, and no census was conducted in 1981.
Incidentally, just a few weeks to the start of the May 3-7, 2023 exercise, on April 28 to be precise, President Muhammadu Buhari announced its postponement, saying that a new date for census would be determined by the incoming administration of President Bola Tinubu.
Meanwhile, this decision, which was taken after meeting with some members of the Federal Executive Council and the Chairman of the NPC and his team at the Presidential Villa in Abuja, still cost the nation a whopping N200 billion, wasted on pre-census exercise.
Despite being saddled with the important task, it was only on April 17 this year that President Tinubu inaugurated a committee on the forthcoming National Population and Housing Census, where he pointed out that the census is crucial for national development, accurate planning, and effective decision-making in healthcare, education, security, and economic planning.
The NPC Chairman, Nasir Isa Kwarra, once again used the opportunity to assure the nation that his commission remains committed to ensuring a credible, technology-driven enumeration that will support effective national planning and development.
Unfortunately, since the committee was set up and given a three-week deadline to submit its report we are still in the dark as to when exactly the census will be conducted prompting the chairman to appeal to the President to convene a meeting of the National Council on Population Management (NCPM) to tackle pressing population management and development issues in Nigeria.
The NPC chairman stated this when he led a delegation to pay a courtesy visit to the Senior Special Assistant to the President on Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), Princess Adejoke Orelope-Adefulire, at her office in Abuja on June 24.
Unfortunately since the appeal was made, the next general election taking place in 2027 has occupied the attention of most of the policy-makers who are keen on ensuring the status quo remains with President Tinubu and the All Progressives Congress (APC) securing a second term.
However, despite the NPC chairman’s confidence, the prevailing situation in the country indicates that the exercise will be very difficult to carry out.
If the 2006 exercise which was conducted when there was peace in the land and still ended in controversy, this time around the enumerators will have to contend with the antics of Boko Haram and other non-state actors rampaging across the land in spite of the best efforts of our security services to curtail them.
Can we honestly expect them to put their lives on the line and go to high risk areas because they want to ensure a proper head-count of their fellow citizens? Your answer is as good as mine!
So the million naira question is: At the end of the day how credible will the figures be whenever the exercise is eventually carried out?
