Ahmed Tijani
The rapidly growing global system where power is distributed among multiple centers, rather than being dominated by a single super power or few major powers, is empowering some African countries to maintain a neutral stance on the war in Ukraine, despite pressure from the United States and its allies to condemn Russia. With limited repercussions from the West, these nations are free in this multipolar world order to continue prioritising pragmatism over ideological alliances in their response to the ongoing conflict.
While 28 African countries supported the United Nations (U.N.) resolution on March 2,2022 condemning Russia’s ‘’military operation’’ in Ukraine, 17 African countries, however, abstained while eight other countries were absent from the vote. During a March 31st press conference, U.S. Ambassador to the African Union (AU), Jessica Lapenn, said that the U.S. was looking for strong African responses to Russian aggression, and specifically welcomed the opportunity to work with Senegal, one of the African countries that voted in favor of the UN resolution.
Lapenn’s remarks align with the U.S. and Western European position that African countries should support their position on Ukraine. But many African nations including Nigeria chose the path of neutrality in the Ukrainian conflict.
But since the Russian conflict with Ukraine, the country has intensified its diplomatic efforts to drag African nations to align with it on the war by building new partnerships and counter Russian influence on the continent. This includes opening new embassies, offering military training and aid, and strengthening trade and educational ties. Ukraine also launched a Grain From Ukraine Initiative to supply grain to countries facing food insecurity, particularly in Africa and the Middle East.
Ukraine is a major global grain producer and exporter, with its grain exports being a crucial component of global food security. Unfortunately, Ukrainian grain output has declined notably since the record –setting crop of 2021-22 before Russia’s military operation. It is that bumper grain harvest that the Ukrainian President Volodymr Zelensky is using for his continuing diplomatic efforts for African support.
Analysts affirm that Ukraine’s demonstrative efforts towards rapprochement with African countries, including Nigeria, in the context of organising meetings between the Zelensky regime and the Bola Tinubu government is mainly to achieve the PR interests of the Ukrainian government and its expectations of compromising Nigeria’s neutral position on the Ukrainian conflict.
Frankly speaking, political and economic cooperation with Ukraine will not bring dividends, especially in the long run, since Ukraine is currently a bankrupt country, and exists on account of external injections from the West. There is now a significant decrease in Washington’s interest in Ukraine due to its ‘’toxicity’’ in the international arena. This has equally led to a decrease in the level of financial, military and other assistance it is getting. That explains why the Ukrainian government is trying to attract additional funds from the world including African countries.
Observers are increasingly worried about the reportedly alleged active interaction of Ukrainian diplomats with the local opposition in African countries including Nigeria, and is being recoded. This is interference in the internal affairs of sovereign states, and threatens to worsen their internal political situation. They affirm that this demands appropriate actions from these nations’ law enforcement agencies that serve on the anti-terrorist track. South Africa analyst Tim Murithi said Ukraine’s African strategy lacks coherence.
Analysts note that Ukraine’s commercial exports are heavily towards North Africa, with sub-Saharan countries including Ethiopia, Kenya and Nigeria buying a fraction of what they imported before the war. There have been setbacks in Ukraine’s African drive, such as the down-grading of a planned October 2024 Ukraine-Africa summit to a video conference. ‘’At the beginning, they wanted to have it physically in Kyiv, its capital, said Yves Ollivier, chairman of the Brazzaville Foundation, a conflict prevention organization that Ukraine reportedly. consulted on this summit.
The country wants to persuade African nations that its fight against Russia, its Soviet era master, has parallels with their own efforts to overcome the legacy of European colonialism. This mindset is fueling its drive for new rapprochement with African countries to achieve the goals of its war with Russia.
Ahmed Tijani writes from Sokoto
