Oladipupo Awojobi 
With President Bola Tinubu’s All Progressives Congress (APC) formally endorsing him for a second term, the real battlefield may lie within the fragmented opposition camp. A new coalition centred around the African Democratic Congress (ADC) is attempting to unify opposition voices but internal tensions threaten to undermine their plans.
Top contenders for presidency
Bola Tinubu (APC – incumbent candidate)
In May 2025, the APC officially endorsed President Bola Tinubu, confirming him as their sole candidate for the 2027 contest. Although his first term has attracted criticism over economic reforms and rising insecurity, recent defections into the APC and party cohesion suggest he may face a divided opposition.
Record & Appeal: Steep economic reforms, including subsidy removal and currency liberalisation, that have drawn praise from international investors and financial institutions, while also fueling a domestic cost-of-living crisis.
Faces criticisms over growing insecurity and allegations of political centralisation. APC’s consolidation and opposition defections reinforce his advantage.
Atiku Abubakar (PDP/ADC Coalition – Northern power base)
Former Vice President Atiku Abubakar, who has run unsuccessfully six times, remains a central figure in opposition politics. He was a member of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) before defecting to the African Democratic Congress (ADC). Many see him as the coalition’s leading contender, due to his political clout in the North and ability to unify disparate forces.
However, internal PDP strife and zoning debates, pitting Northern preference against Southern claims, complicated discussions around his nomination.
Background: Vice‑President under Obasanjo (1999–2007) and six‑time presidential contender. Recently resigned from the PDP amid internal strife to anchor a new coalition under ADC, with wide speculation he’ll get its ticket in 2027.
Platform & Strengths: Champion of “True Federalism,” investor in education through American University of Nigeria, with appeal in the North and among political elites. Noted for financial clout and institutional access.
Challenges: Persistent image of political opportunism; six unsuccessful presidential runs and multiple cross-party shifts. Described as divisive within his former party, PDP; with weak grassroots structure and eroding party cohesion.
Peter Obi (LP/ADC Coalition – Youth appeal, Southern base)
Peter Obi, a former Anambra governor and 2023 Labour Party presidential candidate, remains highly popular among Nigerian youths. He has signaled a strong commitment to contesting in 2027, possibly as part of a coalition strategy and may consider a shared pathway with Atiku, perhaps even as running mate, with a power-sharing model beyond 2031.
Appeal & Messaging: Emphasises fiscal prudence, transparency, and generational change. He commands passionate support from young Nigerians disenchanted with establishment politics.
Uncertainties: Peter Obi has suggested 2027 may be his last run, and coalition negotiations may influence whether he heads the ticket or takes up a vice-presidential or supporting role.
4. Nasir El‑Rufai (Emerging contender)
Ex-Kaduna governor, Nasir El‑Rufai, officially defected from the APC to the Social Democratic Party (SDP) in March 2025. He has however, joined the coalition in ADC, and has confirmed his return to active politics in the race for 2027, reflecting mounting opposition pressure from the North.
Profile: Known for administrative boldness and ideological firmness, though sometimes polarising. He has reached out to political actors across party lines, boosting speculation about a cross-regional ticket (e.g. pairing with a Southern running mate).
Challenges: His abrasive rhetoric and past alienation of Northern traditional leaders complicate efforts to appeal to a broad Northern constituency; suspicion remains about his motives and sincerity.
Rotimi Amaechi (APC / Coalition figure – Southern APC voice)
Rotimi Amaechi, former Minister of Transportation and ex-Rivers State governor, previously contested for the APC nomination in 2023. He remains a notable Southern APC heavyweight and has been suggested as part of coalition negotiations; though his ambitions may clash with those of Obi and Atiku
Other figures on the radar
Rabiu Kwankwaso New Nigeria Peoples Party (NNPP): the ex-Kano governor has sizable regional support and could run again under NNPP or in coalition alliances.
Other aspirants such as Omoyele Sowore, African Action Congress (AAC) and Fela Durotoye Presidential Aspirants Coming Together (PACT), may also enter the fray, particularly under alternative third‑force arrangements.
Political Chessboard: Alliances, zoning, and coalition challenges
Coalition vs. contention: Negotiations led by Atiku, Obi, El‑Rufai, and Amaechi aim to build a united front under the ADC banner.
Power rotation debate: Southern leaders advocate for power to remain in the South until 2031, clashing with Northern aspirations for Atiku Abubakar to claim nomination.
Generational and regional dynamics: Age and appeal matter; while Atiku may command the North, Obi remains a magnet for young voters and Southern constituencies.
Party fractures: The PDP’s internal divisions, LP’s leadership tussles, and ADC’s emerging role all raise uncertainty about a clean opposition breakthrough.
Outlook: A race shaped by realignments
While the APC remains the institutional powerhouse with Tinubu as its candidate, the opposition’s future rests on its ability to resolve internal rivalries and agree on a coherent candidate strategy. If the ADC engine succeeds, or if Atiku and Obi rally under coalition unity, it could reshape Nigeria’s political landscape in 2027.
While President Bola Tinubu remains the institutional favourite backed by APC machinery and high-profile defections, the opposition’s fortunes hinge on whether stalwarts such as Atiku, Obi, and El‑Rufai can resolve internal rivalry and present a unified ticket under the ADC coalition. If they do, the 2027 contest could mirror 2015’s electoral realignment, and reshape Nigeria’s political trajectory.
But for now, the race remains fluid and open.
