Success Nwogu 
As Nigeria targets to hit 1.8m barrel per day crude oil production by December, marketers, under the aegis of Major Oil Marketers Association of Nigeria (MOMAN), have advised that the country actually need far more than that to record substantial economic impact.
According to the Executive Secretary of the association, Mr. Clement Isong, the country needs to achieve three million barrels per day of crude oil production to achieve its development needs.
Recall that the Chief Corporate Communications Officer, Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPCL), Olufemi Soneye, had said Nigeria was targeting a higher production ahead of a pivotal meeting of the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies (OPEC+}.
According to him, the country targets to hit 1.8 million bpd by the end of 2023, though it was producing 1.7 million barrels per day of crude and condensates as of November 17, 2023.
He further said that Nigeria intended to ramp up its crude and condensate output to about two million barell per day by the end of the first quarter of 2024, adding that the aim was to reach 2.5 million bpd in the next couple of years.
But Isong, in an interview with New Telegraph over the weekend, said 1.8mbpd target was very small for Nigeria. He said Nigeria should as soon as possible ramp up its production to 3mbpd so that it can get enough revenue and foreign exchange to address its development challenges.
Nigeria’s crude oil production has ranged between one million and 1.2 million barrels per day from January to August 2023. The Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC) disclosed that the monthly crude oil production output (aside from condensate production) for the year so far has been as follows: January 2023 – 1,266,659 bpd; February 2023 – 1,292,240 bpd; March 2023 – 1,266,737 bpd; April 2023 – 1,004,392 bpd; May 2023 – 1,189,332 bpd; June 2023 – 1,260,928 bpd; July 2023 – 1,089,089 bpd; August 2023 – 1,181,133 bpd.
Using direct communication, Nigeria’s oil production increased by 4,000 barrels per day from 1.347 million barrels per day in September to 1.351 mbpd in October.
But using OPEC crude oil production based on secondary sources; Nigeria supplied 1,399mbpd in September, 1,416mbpd in October, an increase of 17,000bpd. Oil theft and oil infrastructure vandalism have been identified as factors inhibiting Nigeria from attaining its OPEC quota.
Currently, Nigeria OPEC quota is 1.74mbpd. In June 2023, OPEC reduced Nigeria’s future quota by over 20% from 1.74 mb/d to 1.38 mb/d , and the new quota will become effective from January 2024 if the output level remains low.
Isong said: “Nigeria’s target is small. It has been small for a long time. OPEC might give us its target depending on the world economy but Nigeria’s target has been more than that for a very long time. To meet that target, we need to expand our reserves, we need to invest. There are two things I want to say.
“For us to meet our development needs, for us to meet our foreign exchange needs, we need a target that is significantly higher than 1.8mbpd. I will suggest we target 3mbpd. Which is what is good for us if we are going to meet our development needs during the period that crude oil continues to yield high prices. So we need to increase production.”
The oil mogul said there is the need for increased investments in the sector, adding that there is the need to improve on ease of doing business in the country. He said: “The way to do that is to invest. For instance, Cameroun was not investing in expanding their reserves and they woke up one day and found out that they did not have money. If Nigeria does not adapt, adjust, structure its upstream and make it more attractive to investors, we will not expand our reserves. We will not meet that target for our development needs.
“1.74mbpd or 1.8mbpd is not good enough for us to meet our needs. If you look at the forex needs, development needs, we need much more. To achieve much more means we should be investing to expand our reserves, we need to commit to investment terms and investment climate that will attract investors to expand those reserves.
“There was a time when there were not very many people with crude oil, now everybody has. The West African coast has. There are many new fields where investors were yet to prefer to go to them, but today we are competing with them. So, if we want that investment money, particularly in offshore fields, then the fiscal terms have got to be competitive with those countries to encourage them to come to Nigeria.”
He added: “Secondly the ease of doing business must improve significantly, if you want to attract foreign investors. So, it is a fiscal term whereas as a people, we must be welcoming of visitors that are accompanying the foreign investments, otherwise we will stay in our penury.
“Oil theft and vandalism are included in having an ease of business. How many countries in the world are having their pipelines vandalized? We need to stop vandalizing pipelines. We need to stop oil theft. We need to think more of Nigeria as a country rather than individual selfish interest.”
