FELIX NWANERI writes on Nigeria’s 64th independence anniversary, which offers citizens another opportunity to reflect on over six decades of self-rule and nation building vis a vis expectations and reality on ground given the belief that the story of Nigeria is that of missed opportunities despite abundant human and natural resources
At independence from colonial rule on October 1, 1960, Nigeria held the hope of black renaissance. Reasons for this optimism were not farfetched.
Nigeria had the most envious economic profile on the African continent at that time given abundant natural and human resources. Although Nigeria was pumping a mere 45,000 barrels of oil a day and her population standing at 45 million at independence, much has changed since then.
The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), in its report for the second quarter of 2023, put the country’s average daily oil production at 1.22 million barrels per day. The current population of Nigeria is about 225.2 million. On governance system, Nigeria has transmuted from the parliamentary system of government she inherited from Britain to the United States presidential system.
It has also been a mixture of democratic and military rule so far. Also, the administrative structure at independence has seized to exist. From three regions – Northern Region, Western Region and Eastern Region – Nigeria presently has a 36-state structure and the Federal Capital Territory (FCT). The country’s capital has equally been moved from Lagos to Abuja.
However, 64 years after the British Union Jack was lowered and Nigeria’s GreenWhite-Green flag hoisted to mark the end of colonial rule, there is no doubt that the dreams of the nation’s founding fathers are yet to materialize. This, perhaps, explains why many have continued to wonder if Nigeria’s independence was not freedom mismanaged.
Despite abundant human and natural resources, Nigeria is yet to reach her potential. Poverty, hunger and diseases still ravage the landscape. One hundred and thirty million (130 million) Nigerians are said to be poor according to a report by the NBS in November 2022. The figure represents 63 per cent of the nation’s population.
Besides poverty, Nigeria is also being ravaged by insecurity that manifest in various forms. Banditry and kidnapping, farmers/herders clash, oil theft and agitation for self-determination, among others, not only portray Nigeria as a nation at war with itself, but have claimed thousands of lives and property worth billions of naira destroyed.
They have also turned millions of Nigerians to refugees. Across most northern states and even neighboring Chad, Niger Republic and Cameroon, are camps for Internally Displaced Persons (IDPs), while economic activities have been brought to almost a halt in most states of the federation.
Several factors have been blamed for Nigeria’s inability to live up to post-colonial expectations. They include faulty structure, ethnicity and unbridled corruption. However, there is no doubt that lack of visionary leadership explains reasons for the country’s underdevelopment.
The leadership question
There is no doubt that Nigeria has so far been struck by a string of incompetent leaders, who have only succeeded in running the country aground, while less endowed nations that gained independence at the same time it did have recorded giant strides.
It has always been the leadership question, particularly the recruitment process as it is incontrovertible that visionary and committed leadership is the principal element, which ensures that government serves as a vehicle for the attainment of the socio-economic aspirations of the people.
With a few exceptions, the circumstances that led to the emergence of most Nigerians since independence showed that they were ill-prepared prepared for leadership.
In the First Republic, Alhaji Abubakar Tafawa-Balewa, emerged as leader of government business in the parliament courtesy of an arrangement that he should hold forth for the Sardauna of Sokoto (Sir Ahmadu Bello) as Prime Minister in Lagos.
Six years after, the five army majors led by late Chukwuma Nzeogwu, who drew the blueprint for the first military coup that sacked the First Republic, ended up in jail, while Major General Johnson Aguiyi-Ironsi became the surprise beneficiary of the putsch.
General Aguiyi-Ironsi was still grappling with the challenges of the bad blood generated by the coup, when a counter coup claimed his life just six months after he assumed office and General Yakubu Gowon (then a Lt. Colonel), who was not actively involved in events until that point, was named head of state.
The leader of the counter-coup, General Murtala Muhammed, later overthrew Gowon. General Olusegun Obasanjo, who took over from Muhammed after his assassination in 1976, gave a graphic details of his lack of readiness for the job in his book “Not My Will.”
He was barely out of prison over an alleged involvement in a plot to overthrow the then regime of General Sani Abacha, when he was urged to join the 1999 presidential race, which he won. Obasanjo’s second coming was however different ball game.
The former military leader demonstrated that he learnt some leadership lessons after he handed over power in 1979 given the way he ran affairs of the state between 1999 and 2007 that he was in office as a democratically elected president.
For Alhaji Shehu Shagari, the first executive president of Nigeria, he only wanted a seat in the Senate before he was drafted to run for the presidency in 1979. What later became of his government, especially his inability to control some ministers in his cabinet proved that he was ill-prepared for the job.
Major General Muhammadu Buhari, who was head of state between 1983 and 1985, was never in the picture of the coup that truncated the Second Republic. Arrowheads of the putsch like General Ibrahim Babangida, later toppled him in a palace coup. Babangida went ahead to rule for eight years. He capped his reign with annulment of the June 12, 1993 presidential election won by business mogul, Chief MKO Abiola.
Wide spread protests over the botched Third Republic forced Babangida to resign on August 26, 1993. He, however, signed a decree establishing the Interim National Government (ING) led by Chief Ernest Shonekan. The ING was ousted three months later (November) by the then Minister of Defence, General Sani Abacha.
The same story goes for late President Umar Yar‘Adua and his then deputy, Goodluck Jonathan, who later succeeded him. The belief is that they were handpicked in 2007 by then President Obasanjo as Yar’Adua never showed interest in the presidency, while Jonathan wanted to contest for the governorship of his home state – Bayelsa – before he was picked as Yar’Adua’s running mate.
As fate would have it, Jonathan became president three years into their four-year tenure following Yar’Adua’s death in May 2010. Jonathan presented himself for reelection in 2011. He was so popular in the build-up to that election that he got a pan Nigeria mandate.
But the euphoria that heralded his victory waned shortly after his inauguration over what most Nigerians described as his government’s lack of vision. This, partly explained his defeat in 2015. General Buhari, a former military ruler, who won the 2015 presidential election made history as the first to defeat an incumbent president in Nigeria’s political history.
He also became Nigeria’s second former military ruler after Obasanjo to return to the presidency through the ballot. Buhari’s return to the position he vacated in 1985, was after three failed bids. Unfortunately, not much changed during the eight years he was in power.
Nigeria’s decline became more palpable than before, while Insecurity and poverty ravaged the country under Buhari’s watch. Under Bola Tinubu, a former governor of Lagos State, who succeeded Buhari in 2023, the story of despair and frustration has assumed an alarming dimension over high-cost of living and insecurity.
Faulty structure
Though Nigeria’s fragmentation predates independence given her over 350 ethnic groups, efforts by successive administrations to cement the crack did not yield desired results. The unitary constitution/system of government presently in place under the guise of a federal system has also not helped matters.
This explains why the clamour for restructuring Nigeria has been a recurring. Its advocates are of the view that only a peoples’ constitution will re-tool the Nigerian federalism and address pertinent national questions such as autonomy for the states; fiscal federalism to pave the way for resource control by the component units; state police and indigene ship question.
Some stakeholders have continued to query whether Nigeria should continue to operate the presidential system of government and a full-time legislature, among others, in the face dwindling resources as high cost of governance at the various levels is partly responsible for the country’s stunted development.
There are also members of a political school rooting for a return to regionalism, as according to them, the present 36-state structure is no longer sustainable. While proponents of this arrangement are of the view that proliferation of states has continued to impede the country’s development given that most of them are unviable, some individuals are still clamoring for the creation new states.
No doubt, some of the demands seem genuine given that they are inspired by the same concerns that preceded state creations – minority fears, inequality and skewed development – but the consensus is that the powers of the Federal Government should be whittled down as it seems that it is the only government in place with the 65 items it has powers on in the Exclusive Legislative List.
Despite the inherent gains of restructuring, there are some stakeholders, who believe that the call is ill-motivated. Members of this political school predicated their position on the fear of disintegration. However, there have been efforts in this regard by successive administrations although their reports/recommendations ended up in the archives.
They include the 1994/1995 Constitutional Conference (CC) by the regime of late General Sani Abacha; 2005 National Political Reform Conference (NPRC), convoked by then President Olusegun Obasanjo and the 2014 National Conference convoked by the Goodluck Jonathan administration.
North/South dichotomy
Despite efforts of Nigeria’s founding fathers – Dr. Nnamdi Azikiwe, Sir Ahmadu Bello and Chief Obafemi Awolowo – to foster unity among the people, there still exist a gulf between the country’s geopolitical divides – North and South. Citizens along the two divides have continued to view each other with suspicion.
The respective regions, at some time in the country’s history, had used threats of secession to extract concessions from the Federal Government. In 1950, the North threatened to secede if it was not granted equal representation with the South in the legislative council.
In 1953, the West also threatened to secede over revenue allocation and making of Lagos the Federal Capital Territory. In 1967, the East (now the South-East and South-South) declared the Republic of Biafra in line with the tradition of using threat of secession as a political instrument.
While the nation paid dearly for the civil war that ensued – loss of over three million lives during the 30-month-old war and destruction of critical infrastructure – calls for disintegration keep reverberating across the country. The question against this backdrop is: Will balkanization solve Nigeria’s problems? Most stakeholders believe it will not as every region is bedeviled by the same contending variables as Nigeria.
Unbridled corruption
One thing that has held Nigeria back since independence is systemic and entrenched corruption. This challenge is closely linked to the leadership question, and explains why successive Nigerian leaders failed to see headship as call for service and opportunity to make positive impact.
Nobel Laureate, Prof. Wole Soyinka, who likened corruption in the country to cancer, once used two words – ‘hydra’ and ‘octopus’ to describe the level of graft in the country. He said: “We have a cancerous situation; you fight one arm of corruption, another grows.
A methodological name for corruption in Nigeria is hydropus.” While Soyinka may not be far from the truth as Nigeria has seen its wealth wasted with little to show in living conditions of the masses, the frightening dimension that corruption assumed of late has prompted calls for more drastic measures to combat it.
The belief is that the various anti-graft agencies – Economic and Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC) and Independent Corrupt Practices and other related offences Commission (ICPC) are fast losing the battle. Some of the measures that have been advocated include capital punishment given the slap on the wrist kind of judgements by the courts on several high profile corruption cases.
Poverty amidst plenty/Insecurity
In 2022, an estimated population of 88.4 million people in Nigeria lived in extreme poverty. The number of men living on less than 1.90 U.S. dollars a day in the country reached around 44.7 million, while the count was at 43.7 million for women.
Overall, 12.9 per cent of the global population in extreme poverty was found in Nigeria as of 2022. The country’s currency – Naira – has of late been on a free-fall. It presently exchanges at N1,600 to the United States dollar.
Sadly, the various interventionist programmes of successive administrations and even those initiated by the present administration rather than alleviate poverty, which they were meant for, seem to have only succeeded in entrenching it. Besides issues of poverty and ailing economy, growing insecurity across the country portends a grave danger to Nigeria’s unity.
From the Boko Haram insurgency ravaging the North-East geopolitical zone to banditry and kidnapping in the North-West; farmers/herders clash in the North Central; militancy cum oil theft in the South-South and agitation for self-determination in the South-East, the picture is that of a nation at war with itself. The Boko Haram insurgency, which is driven by Islamic extremists, has not only claimed thousands of lives and property worth billions of naira, it has turned millions of Nigerians to refugees in their own country.
Across most northern states are camps for over three million Internally Displaced Persons (IDPs), while rebuilding efforts by the Federal Government in conjunction with donor agencies have gulped billions of naira. For bandits, majorly operating in the North-West, kidnapping for ransom and cattle rustling have turned to lucrative businesses.
In the oil-rich but impoverished South-South, sabotage of pipelines by oil thieves has become legendary. Separatist agitation in the South-East, on its part, has not only led to loss of lives, but the Monday’s stay-at-home directive by the Indigenous People of Biafra (IPOB) has crippled the zone’s economy.
Similarly, rising ethnic tension over activities of killer herdsmen across the country has not only exposed the heterogeneous nature of the country, but the tendency of the various ethnic nationalities towards parochial consciousness hence gradually driving Nigeria to the edge.
The conflict, which has claimed thousands of lives, is mainly as a result of disputes over land resources between mostly Muslim Fulani herders and mainly Christian farmers. Though the impact of the crisis has been more devastating in the North Central since 1999, the herders have advanced towards the southern part of the country, thereby shifting the battleground.
Flawed electoral processes
It is incontestable that a credible electoral system gives credence to the quality of any nation’s democracy. However, in the case of Nigeria, it has been a gradual descent down the hill since independence. The electoral process over time has been characterized by manipulation and violence.
A publication of the United States Agency for International Development (USAID) stated that the “combination of insecurity, petro-dependency, and the need to hold or have access to the presidency, drives members of the Nigerian oligarchy to fix elections, organise political violence, constantly reshuffle alliances and avoid institutionalizing stable political parties.”
It is against these backdrops that many have repeatedly called for an electoral reform process that will revolutionize and overhaul the system to make it yield to the basic tenets of democracy.
This is even as successive administrations were indifferent to implement reports of several electoral reform panels set up in the past, particularly the Justice Mohammed Uway’s Electoral Reform Panel.
The panel, among other recommended for the establishment of an Electoral Offences Tribunal to be saddled with the responsibility of prosecuting electoral offenders, so that the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) can concentrate its energy on conducting elections professionally and competently.
Not all gloom
Despite the myriads of problems, there is no doubt that Nigeria has made appreciable progress in some sectors in the last 63 years. Most significant is that the nation has been able to sustain its unity despite threats to its corporate existence. According to some stakeholders, this is a feat worth celebrating.
Some stakeholders also point to the gains of the democratic experience, which has not only afforded Nigerians the opportunity to elect their leaders at the various levels of governance since 1999, but freedom of speech associated with it.
On socio-economic development, Nigeria has also made appreciable progress. The nation did not have more than five universities at independence but it presently has more than 170 universities that include federal, states and private universities. It is the same story with polytechnics and Federal Government colleges now called unity schools.
Analysts say these are testament to the fact that the nation has progressed politically and socio-economically although at slow pace compared to its peers. However, against the backdrop that most past Nigerian leaders were railroaded into positions of leadership, with little or no demonstration of ability to comprehend the problems of the nation, it is incontestable that only leaders with vision can inspire and mobilize the citizenry for nation building.