As inflation sweeps across the world, taking a toll on various economies, including that of Nigeria and countries in the sub-Sahara regions, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has identified the need to urgently tackle the menace that has seen the investment atmosphere cascading rapidly. According to the Fund, sub- Saharan Africa faces one of the most challenging economic environments in years, marked by a slow recovery from the pandemic, rising food and energy prices, and high levels of public debt. It noted that one of the most urgent issues confronting the region was the need to tackle decade-high levels of inflation— which are devastating incomes and food security—while also supporting growth. Recall that Nigeria’s inflation rate surged to 20.77 per cent in September 2022, up from 20.52 per cent recorded in the previous month.
The new Consumer Price Index (CPI) report by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) showed that Nigeria’s CPI rose by 20.77 per cent year-on-year in September 2022. On a month-on-month basis, the index rose by 1.36 per cent compared to the 1.77 per cent increase recorded in the previous month. This represents the highest rate since September 2005. Meanwhile, the urban inflation rate stood at 21.25 per cent in September 2022 from 17.19 per cent recorded in the corresponding period of 2021, while rural inflation stood at 20.32 per cent. According to the National Bureau of Statistics, the increase in the country’s inflation rate may be attributable to the disruption in the supply of food products, the increase in import cost as a result of depreciating currency, and the general increase in the cost of production.
“While there are big differences between countries, the median of inflation rates in the region increased to almost 9 per cent in August. And even though the rise has been less dramatic than in other parts of the world, and the drivers are different, inflation is nearly double pre-pandemic levels, risking social and political instability and worsening food insecurity. “Despite a rebound last year, the fallout from the pandemic has kept domestic economic activity in sub-Saharan Africa relatively muted, and we expect growth in the region to slow this year. Most countries in the region have lacked the resources to support and stimulate growth, in sharp contrast to richer countries elsewhere that could inject trillions of dollars into their economies,” IMF said.
It specifically noted that in sub-Saharan Africa, inflation had been driven less by domestic activity than in advanced economies, stressing that instead, external developments had shaped the path of inflation since the start of the pandemic.
“They include the sharp spike in global commodity prices, swings in the exchange rate, global supply chain disruptions, and natural disasters. “In the case of food, the prices of key staples such as maize and wheat have increased since 2019, contributing two-thirds of overall inflation in fragile states and one-half elsewhere in the region. Higher global energy prices and the strong dollar have also fed through to inflation indirectly, via transportation and tradable goods like household products. “By contrast, there have been only modest increases for the prices of goods and services that most reflect domestic demand pressures, socalled nontradables—which typically include any locallyproduced services, such as in the hospitality, health, or education sectors.