Lawrence Olaoye 
The Independent Media and Policy Initiative (IMPI) has criticized the International Monetary Fund (IMF) for downgrading its economic growth projection for Nigeria in 2025, reducing it from 3.2 percent to 3.0 percent.
The IMF cited the global oil slump as the primary factor for the revision.
However, IMPI argued that the Nigerian economy, under the leadership of President Bola Tinubu, is no longer solely reliant on oil.
The think tank emphasized that the country’s non-oil export sector has seen significant growth, driven by ongoing economic diversification and the impact of government policies.
In a policy statement signed by its Chairman, Omoniyi Akinsiju, IMPI expressed support for the 7 percent growth forecast provided by Finance Minister and Coordinating Minister of the Economy, Wale Edun. The statement read:
“The IMF downgraded Nigeria’s economic growth forecast for 2025 by 0.2 percentage points to 3.0 percent, down from 3.2 percent, and similarly revised growth for 2026 to 2.7 percent. The IMF justified this by citing the expected decline in global oil prices as a significant risk to the country’s fiscal and external balances.
“However, it is difficult to accept that a single factor, such as global oil prices, could lead to such a substantial decline in the size of the Nigerian economy, especially when the country is working hard to reduce its dependence on oil.”
The World Bank, in contrast, projected a more optimistic outlook.
The bank’s report forecasted Nigeria’s economy would grow by 3.6 percent in 2025, building on an estimated 3.4 percent growth in 2024, with further expansion to 3.8 percent by 2027.
According to the World Bank, the growth would be driven by the sustained economic reforms and the gradual stabilization of Nigeria’s macroeconomic environment.
The bank also pointed to the expected improvement in the performance of non-oil sectors, particularly financial services, telecommunications, and information technology, as well as easing inflationary pressures and improved business sentiment.
IMPI argued that it is not uncommon for countries to challenge the IMF’s projections. Citing examples from Mexico and Zambia, where IMF forecasts were proven inaccurate, IMPI questioned the reliability of the IMF’s data.
For instance, Mexico rejected the IMF’s 0.3 percent contraction projection for its economy in 2025, claiming that the IMF’s economic models were flawed. Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum responded, saying, “We do not know what it is based on. We disagree. We have our own economic models, which the finance ministry has, that do not coincide with this projection.”
In a similar vein, the IMF had predicted that Zambia’s economy would struggle during the 2008 global financial crisis due to falling copper prices, a projection that was later proven incorrect as Zambia’s economy managed to withstand the downturn.
IMPI concluded that Nigerians should not take the IMF’s negative economic projections too seriously, pointing to past instances where the IMF’s forecasts for developing economies, including Nigeria, were inaccurate.
The think tank also found reassurance in a U.S. Department of State report that described Nigeria as an “economic miracle,” commending the country’s progress and resilience.
