Group Opposes CAPPA’s Push For 1,200% Tax Hike On SSB

ThinkBusiness Africa has challenged the Corporate Accountability and Public Participation Africa (CAPPA) report calling for an aggressive overhaul of Nigeria’s Sugar-Sweetened Beverage (SSB) tax, demanding an increase in tax by 1, 200 per cent from the current ₦10 to ₦130 per litre.

The organisation had accused beverage companies of using culturally resonant advertising to manipulate consumers and tied rising rates of obesity, diabetes, and hypertension directly to SSB consumption.

In May 2025, CAPPA released a new report titled: “Junk on Our Plates: Exposing deceptive marketing of unhealthy foods across seven states in Nigeria.”

However, a critical review of the report published by ThinkBusiness Africa, a strategic business intelligence and research firm, presents a more grounded and data-driven perspective.

The Chief Executive Officer of ThinkBusiness Africa, Dr. Ogho Okiti challenged the analytical foundation of CAPPA’s recommendations, describing them as both “statistically inconsistent and economically risky.”

According to the review, CAPPA draws its core conclusions from outdated or mismatched data, such as citing obesity trends among sedentary urban women while recommending policy interventions primarily targeting adolescent males, the demographic it identifies as consuming the most sugary beverages.

Furthermore, Okiti noted that CAPPA’s assumption that the ₦10/litre SSB tax had failed to curb consumption or improve health outcomes is not backed by any published data.

ThinkBusiness Africa highlights this gap, emphasizing that there has been no national assessment of the current tax’s effectiveness.
He noted: “You cannot credibly propose a 1,200 per cent increase in any tax without first evaluating the impact of the existing policy.

“Policy decisions must be rooted in evidence, not just urgency. The risk of overreach is high—both in economic disruption and public trust.”

Okiti further outlined the complexity of Nigeria’s beverage industry, which spans large-scale manufacturers to informal retail vendors operating across rural and urban economies.

In such a fragmented market, he warns, tax enforcement becomes difficult and often disproportionately affects small and medium enterprises.

Okiti stressed: “There’s a tendency in some advocacy circles to treat sugar-sweetened beverages as the sole culprit in Nigeria’s nutritional challenges.

“But dietary health is influenced by a constellation of factors—urbanization, income, education, processed food consumption, and sedentary behavior.

Singling out SSBs is reductionist. The economic burden of a higher SSB tax also cannot be ignored. Nigeria’s beverage producers already contend with steep fiscal obligations, including a 30 percent corporate income tax, 7.5 percent VAT, and a 3 percent tertiary education tax.”

According to PwC, this amounts to an effective tax burden of 45 percent on the sector. An additional ₦130/litre excise tax would not only intensify inflationary pressure on consumers but also threaten jobs across the manufacturing and distribution value chains.

Interestingly, Nigeria’s sugar consumption remains among the lowest in West Africa. The National Sugar Development Council reported that per capita sugar intake stood at just 6.9kg in 2018—a stark contrast to regional peers.

This metric alone questions the portrayal of Nigeria as a sugar-saturated nation and casts doubt on the necessity of such an extreme policy response.

CAPPA’s model also forecasts a 29 per cent drop in SSB consumption following a 39 per cent retail price increase, citing youth as the most price-sensitive group.

However, ThinkBusiness Africa critiques this projection for omitting potential consequences such as industry contraction, job losses, and a shrinking taxable base.

Even the World Health Organisation has refrained from listing SSB taxes as one of its “Best Buy” interventions, acknowledging that evidence of long-term cost-effectiveness remains inconclusive.

To design effective and equitable public policy, Okiti emphasises the need for better data.
Okiti added: “Nigeria urgently requires a Total Dietary Intake Study to assess where calories and nutrients come from across all demographics.

“This would provide the evidence base for multi-sectoral interventions, rather than relying on narrow or emotive narratives.”

He also recommends that any new tax proposal undergo a Regulatory Impact Assessment to evaluate potential consequences on employment, pricing, and public health before being implemented.

“Finally, transparency remains a sticking point. Since the introduction of the SSB tax in 2022, there has been no public accounting of the revenues it has generated or how those funds have been used to support health systems.

ThinkBusiness Africa warns that without transparency and earmarked spending, the tax risks losing its moral and fiscal legitimacy.