In this report, ONWUKA NZESHI 
The political parties have all concluded their primary elections and chosen their preferred candidates for the forthcoming presidential elections. In this report, ONWUKA NZESHI postulates that the emerging scenario indicates that the election would be a four-horse race
The special conventions of the political parties held amidst lots of intrigues and manoeuvres. Apart from the competing forces within each of the political parties, there was also the cold war between the two dominant parties, the People’s Democratic Party (PDP) and All Progressives Congress (APC) on zoning of the presidential ticket.
It was these intra and inter- party rivalries that created the suspense around their conventions, resulting in several postponements as each party tried to delay critical decisions and actions to prevent the rival party from having undue advantage in the contest for power. The bone of contention was essentially the clamour for power shift or rotation by the Southern Governors Forum (SGF) which has membership drawn from across the political parties.
The Southern and Middle Belt Leaders Forum (SMBLF), was also at the forefront of the pressure mounted on the two dominant political parties to zone their presidential tickets to Southern Nigeria in the interest of justice, equity and fairness.
The parties were in serious dilemma on how to handle the agitation without hurting their political fortunes in 2023. Both the PDP and APC were being very careful not to disclose their plans on power rotation earlier than their opponents. Each of the political parties believed that it was better to keep its joker under wraps and close to its chest if it wanted to win the mind game. It would be recalled that this delay tactics employed by the two dominant parties nearly put their conventions in jeopardy but for the extension of the deadline.
Following the appeals made by the Inter Party Advisory Council (IPAC), the umbrella body of the 18 registered political parties, the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) extended the period for conduct of party primaries by six days.
The commission had given political parties June 3 to conclude their primaries, but after a meeting with leadership of political parties, INEC extended the period to June 9. Chairman, Information and Voter Education Committee of INEC Festus Okoye, explained that the extension was granted because it would not disrupt other scheduled activities on the timetable.
Okoye said: “The commission has decided to allow the request of the political parties since the six-day period does not conflict with the next scheduled activity which is the submission of the list of nominated candidates or any of the subsequent timelines, which remain sacrosanct.”
The surprises
Before the extension, PDP had already fixed its convention to conform with the initial time table while the APC had practically halted its own processes. The ruling party was bidding its time and at the risk of being ruled out of the game.
This explained why the PDP reacted to the last minute decision by INEC to extend the deadline as a partisan gesture akin to shifting the goal post at the middle of the game.
Even at that, the PDP failed to manage its own internal contradictions well in respect of zoning of the presidential ticket. It threw the ticket open against the loud clamour for it to confine its search for a candidate to the Southern region of the country. It did not even consider the fact that in 2014/ 2015 when the North agitated for power shift and got it through President Muhammadu Buhari and the APC, the South-East and South-South regions were the only strongholds of the party.
The immediate repercussion of throwing the race open, was the exit of some of the presidential aspirants who saw that the windows of opportunities were being shut against them. While some pulled out of the race completely, Peter Obi, the most prominent among the aggrieved aspirants took a decision that shocked not just the party but the entire country.
Obi, a former Governor of Anambra State and former Vice Presidential candidate of the PDP in the 2019 election, pulled out of the race and resigned from the party at the same time. Before the PDP could recover from that shock, Obi joined the Labour Party (LP) and immediately resuscitated his presidential aspiration, a move that shook the entire political landscape.
In a short message to announce his arrival at the new political platform, Obi described Labour Party as “a route free of rancour and one in line with my mantra of taking the country from consumption to production.” He noted that Labour Party “is synonymous with the people, workers, development, production, securing and uniting the Nigerians as one family.”
Obi stated that since he resigned from the PDP because of issues that were at variance with his personal and democratic principles, he had consulted widely with various political associates, personalities and groups to ensure he does not complicate the route to the desired destination.
Obi said: “The process of getting into this high office” was as fundamental as what one does thereafter. “This project is yours and for the future of your children. I am just a facilitator,” he said.
He expressed gratitude to Nigerians, especially the youths, who, he said, “have joined me in the mission of rescuing and taking back Nigeria. “I invite my fellow Nigerians to join me to take back our country. Be assured that I’ll never let you down.”
Within 24hours of Obi’s declaration for Labour Party, the membership registration portal of the party crashed due to the pressure put on it by millions of young Nigerians scrambling to join him at the new platform.
The return of Atiku
When the PDP Special Presidential Convention held, a former Vice President, Alhaji Atiku Abubakar emerged as the winner of the primary election held at the Velodrome of the National Stadium, Abuja.
Atiku, a familiar face in presidential contests since 2007, scored 371 votes to beat his closet challenger, Governor Nyesom Wike of Rivers State, who got 237 votes.
Former President of the Senate Bukola Saraki came third with 70 votes. Akwa Ibon State governor Udom Emmanuel got 38 votes while his Bauchi State counterpart Bala Mohammed scored 20 votes, and former Secretary to the Government of the Federation (SGF) Anyim Pius Anyim got 14 votes.
Two other aspirants, Mazi Sam Ohuabunwa and Diana Oliver, the only female aspirant in the race, were recorded one vote each. Four other aspirants scored zero votes while 12 votes were voided. Twelve aspirants contested the tension soaked primary, which saw Sokoto State governor Aminu Waziri Tambuwal withdrawing from the race for Atiku.
The Obi phenomenon
Interestingly, the former Governor of Anambra State, Peter Obi, has been elected as the presidential candidate of the Labour Party for the 2023 presidential election. Obi emerged as the standard bearer of the party at the national convention and presidential primary held in Asaba, Delta State.
Obi had a smooth ride to the ticket, after Prof Pat Utomi, the only other aspirant, stepped down from the contest. If there is anything that Obi has demonstrated with his recent political moves, it is that he has the potential to pull more surprises in the coming months leading to the general election.
The Tinubu rage
After all the delays, the APC Special Convention held at the Eagle Square, Abuja. It did not just come at the tail end of the extension period, it also came with lots of tension, suspense and subterfuge.
About forty-eight hours to the crucial contest, National Chairman of the ruling party, Sen Abdullahi Adamu, announced to the chagrin of members of the National Working Committee (NWC) that the party had anointed Ahmad Lawan as the consensus candidate.
According to him, Lawan, President of the Senate was chosen after consultations with President Muhammadu Buhari who had earlier expressed his preference for a consensus candidate. Since President Buhari had about a week earlier, pleaded with the APC governors to give him the privilege of choosing his successor, Adamu’s message from the benevolent Emperor, appeared real and final.
In fact, the projection of Lawan as the consensus candidate momentarily brought the ambitions of the rest aspirants to a sudden death. It took the open resistance of the former Governor of Lagos State, Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu and the backing of some APC governors from the North, to halt that disruptive move.
Tinubu, the acclaimed National Leader of the party and veteran of many political battles was so angered by the plots to stop him from running the full race that he delivered a no holds barred speech at the Government House, Abeokuta. In the speech, the strongman of Lagos politics, for the first time, revealed that he had an “understanding” with Buhari way back in 2014 that he (Tinubu) will succeed him.
In his own judgement, he had delivered his own side of the bargain by helping Buhari to ascend the throne twice. It was time for Buhari and the North to repay the secret political debt pending between both parties.
This open claim to the throne in the now famous Emi Lokan Declaration, practically forced the puppet masters propping up the Lawan effigy to drop the strings.
Although, Tinubu’s open rebellion ruffled many feathers and earned him some threats of sanctions, it turned out to be his saving grace as the party leaders saw the dangers in his veiled threats to rock the boat if thrown under the bus. In essence, the APC chose to conduct an elective convention rather than adopting a consensus candidate whose emergence could have triggered a crisis capable of sinking the ship.
Tinubu emerged as the choice candidate, after he beat 22 other contestants, many of whom pledged loyalty to him and withdrew from the race
Kwankwaso
On the sidelines of these developments in the PDP, APC and Labour Party, other political parties have conducted their primaries and picked their presidential candidates.
In the New Nigeria Peoples Party (NNPP), a former Governor of Kano State, Alhaji Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso has been chosen as flagbearer; the Peoples Redemption Party (PRP) has elected Mr Kola Abiola, some of the late Chief MKO Abiola while there is currently a dispute on who actually will fly the flag of the Social Democratic Party (SDP) Prince Adewole Adebayo, a Lawyer and Founder of the KAFTAN Television and his Sen Ebenezer Ikeyina who apparently emerged from a rival faction of the party.
Four horses
As could be discerned from the foregoing, a host of other political parties have held their conventions and elected their presidential candidates, but from experience, the majority of the electorate will have their eyes fixed on the PDP, APC and LP..
The scenario is such that while there may be 18 political parties on the ballot, only these four and perhaps, the NNPP might be able to attract significant votes on the election day. Indeed, the NNPP could have been the fourth force but for the rather limited influence of the Kwankwasiya Movement to the North West.
As it is today, Atiku, Tinubu and Obi are the only candidates that have achieved name recognition across the country.
Their parties have also become household names. While the PDP and APC are the traditional legacy parties with physical presence across the country, the LP has attained an amazing national recognition with its dominance of the digital space and is currently making its presence felt on the ground through the voluntarism and goodwill of its members and supporters across Nigeria.
It must be pointed out that it would have been a two horse race as it was in 2015 and 2019 when the PDP and APC were the main contenders. The Labour Party shot its way to limelight with Obi’s phenomenal arrival and the massive support the move has created for the party.
The message of taking back Nigeria from the vultures and transforming her from a consumption to a production entity, resonates perfectly with the younger generations of Nigeria.
The evidence that the LP is spreading like a wild fire in the harmattan can be seen from the massive turnout of Nigerians seeking to obtain their Permanent Voter’s Cards at various INEC offices and service locations in our towns and cities.
Hopefully, Nigerians may be able to liberate themselves and their fatherland from the shackles of poverty and underdevelopment riding on the crest of this emerging political revolution.
However, besides the traditional impact of religion, region and ethnicity in previous elections, observers believe that competence, age, integrity and a strong desire to break from the past will play major roles in the 2023 elections.
