Tony Chukwunyem 
Financial Derivatives Company (FDC) has said that its projections, based on the old methodology for calculating the Consumer Price Index (CPI), show that Nigeria’s headline inflation likely fell to 32.11 per cent in February 2025.
The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) recently published rebased CPI data, which indicated that headline inflation fell sharply to 24.48 per cent in January 2025, from December 2024’s 34.80 per cent.
In a report released on Tuesday, FDC said it expected inflation to keep heading south as a result of factors such as an increase in food supply, a reduction in fuel prices and low consumer demand occasioned by income constraints.
The firm stated: “According to our Lagos market survey for February and a refined regression analysis employing the old methodology, Nigeria’s headline inflation rate is poised for a modest decline by 1.24 per cent to 32.11 per cent in February, easing from 33.35 per cent in January.
This gradual deceleration reflects a subtle yet noticeable increase in food supply. The arrival of imported foodstuffs under the duty waiver also helped dampen the accelerated rise in commodity prices and those of their substitutes.
“Additionally, a reduction in fuel prices and low consumer demand due to income constraints contributed to this decline, leading to a 15 per cent drop in FMCGs sales volume.
Traders are holding onto inventory in hopes that prices will rise. However, prices are likely to decline further as demand remains weak. In alignment with this trend, both food and core inflation are expected to move in tandem with the headline rate.”
It added: “Among the tracked commodities, notable price declines were observed in garri (2.86%), Irish potatoes (11%), rice (5%), and wheat flour (10%).
Meanwhile, 82.86 per cent of items in the basket remained unchanged, while 5.71 per cent experienced an uptick. Overall, there is clear evidence of a disinflationary trend, and prices are likely to remain low even after ramadan.”
