Kelechukwu Mgboji Nigeria’s export trade volume declined by 12.7 per cent year-on-year (y/y) to $22.59 billion when measured in dollar terms, reflecting underlying weaknesses in export performance and subdued import activity.
However, latest data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) suggested that total foreign trade soared by 68.3 per cent yearon-year (y/y) to N36.60 trillion in Q4’24.
The increase in trade value was largely propelled by the sharp depreciation of the local currency, the naira.
The trade surge in naira terms was driven by a steep 48.1 pet cent currency devaluation, which saw the naira fall to N1,620.15/USD from N840.50/USD in the previous year.
Similarly, total exports dropped 18.2 per cent y/y to $12.35 billion, weighed down by lower crude oil output (1.54 mb/d vs 1.56 mb/d in Q4 2023) and weaker oil prices (USD74.21/bbl vs USD82.85/bbl).
In similar vein, imports dipped 4.9 per cent y/y to $10.24 billion, largely reflecting a 22.7 per cent decline in petroleum imports due to increased domestic refining, even as non-oil imports rose 7.1 per cent amid improved FX liquidity.
Consequently, Nigeria’s trade balance plunged 51.2 per cent y/y to $2.11 billion, as the decline in exports outpaced the drop in imports.
On a full-year basis, however, the trade surplus stood higher at $11.34 billion in 2024, compared to $7.86 billion in 2023.
The situation is made worse by decline in crude production (including condensates) which fell 3.8 per cent month-on-month (m/m) to 1.67 mb/d in February, according to data from the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC).
The Bonny terminal (-21.8% y/y) recorded the most significant decline, attributed to recently completed maintenance work on the Trans Niger pipeline.
Other key terminals, including Brass (-16.6%), Tulja-Okwuibome (-16.0%), and Escravos (-13.5%), also registered production declines, according to the NUPRC data obtained by New Telegraph.
Commenting on the outlook of the oil sector of the economy, analysts at Lagos based Cordros Capital noted that improved security and rising sector investments are expected to sustain production above 1.60 mb/d in the medium term.
