Abolaji Adebayo 
Nigerian telecommunications experts have echoed and localised global concerns, highlighting the unique economic, competitive, and regulatory pressures exacerbating the Average Revenue Per User (ARPU) decline in Africa’s largest market.
They articulated a scenario where subscriber growth, while impressive on paper, is increasingly dominated by low-value users and multipleSIM ownership, creating a volume-driven model with perilously thin margins. As of October, 2025, Nigeria’s telecom subscriber base had grown, reaching over 175 million active mobile subscriptions.
The consensus is that the industry is at a critical juncture, requiring a fundamental strategic pivot beyond traditional connectivity. President of the Association of Telecommunications Companies of Nigeria (ATCON), Mr. Tony Emoekpere, pinpointed the severe macroeconomic squeeze as a primary culprit.
“Network operators in Nigeria are trapped between soaring costs, largely dollardenominated for infrastructure, equipment, and spectrum licenses, and a naira revenue stream that is under constant pressure from inflation and currency devaluation.
“To attract and retain the vast population of price-sensitive users, tariffs have remained largely stagnant or even declined in real terms. This direct suppression of ARPU is a survival tactic, not a choice, as the subscriber base expands into lower-income demographics.
“This economic bind means that the cost of serving each new customer often outweighs the revenue they generate, making growth an operational necessity but a financial challenge,” Emoekpere explained.
Delving into market dynamics, CEO of Medallion Communications, Mr. Ikechukwu Nnamani, highlighted intense competition and market saturation. He stated: “The Nigerian market is intensely saturated with voice services, and data is rapidly becoming a pure commodity.
“Operators are locked in a fierce battle for market share, frequently resorting to aggressive price promotions, endless data bundling, and loyalty bonuses that erode perceived value.
The drive for expansion, including regulatory mandates to cover rural areas, adds substantial network costs without a commensurate, immediate uplift in ARPU, as these new users are typically in the lowest spending bracket.”
He further noted that the proliferation of SIM cards, with individuals often owning multiple lines to take advantage of intranetwork promos, artificially in flates subscriber numbers while further diluting average revenue, as spending is fragmented across networks.
The solution, according to experts, lies in a bold transformation of the business model. An industry expert, Ajibola Olude, Executive, a strong advocate for this digital leap, stated: “To decisively combat ARPU erosion, Nigerian operators must accelerate their evolution from connectivity providers to holistic digital service platforms.
“This means innovating and capturing value in adjacent sectors like fintech, particularly by leveraging the widespread Payment Service Bank (PSB) licenses, developing enterprise-focused IoT solutions for agriculture and logistics, and creating tailored local content and entertainment services.
The future revenue will come from building smart, sticky ecosystems, not just from selling increasingly commoditized airtime and data bundles.”
However, this path is fraught with challenges as experts such as the former Executive Vice Chairman of the Nigerian Communications Commission (NCC), Dr. Ernest Ndukwe, cautioned that the regulatory environment must evolve in tandem.
“For operators to invest in the network upgrades and service innovation needed to boost ARPU, they require a stable and incentivizing policy framework. “Addressing critical issues like the high cost of Right-ofWay, protecting infrastructure from vandalism, and reviewing sector-specific taxes is crucial to improving the industry’s health and its ability to deliver higher-value services,” he said.
