Something has always been fundamentally wrong with the Economic Community of West African States, the regional block of 15 West African countries formed 49 years ago. Since it was birthed by the Treaty of Lagos on the 28th of May 1975, it has struggled to forge a strong regional alliance based on its stated mission to promote economic integration across the region. Its success in that regard has been minimal. More worrying is that ECOWAS has now shrunk from its 6.2 million square kilometers to less than half of its original land mass. The announcement on Sunday January 28, 2024 by the military regimes in Niger Republic, Mali and Burkina Faso of their immediate withdrawal from the body, is a major crack for the body. It does not only signpost the departure of most of the Sahel region, it is a major crack that threatens its very existence, following the crisis that has dogged it in the past six months.

It is not the first time a member-state would withdraw from ECOWAS; twenty- four years earlier in 2000, a founding member state, Mauritania, had withdrawn its membership for different reasons. The joint statement of last Sunday read out on Niger national television said it was a “sovereign decision” of leaders of the three Sahel nations to leave the body “without delay”. If the move was shocking, the accusation leveled against the ECOWAS gave a deep insight into their frustrations and what has defined the current political movement in the Sahel which they say ECOWAS has failed to identify with. While they stated that “the organization has drifted from the ideals of its founding fathers and the spirit of Pan-Africanism,” the three countries accused the regional body of failing to support their fight against “terrorism and insecurity”, while imposing “illegal, illegitimate, inhumane and irresponsible sanctions”.

The background to the disagreements is rooted in the successive military take- over of power in Mali in 2020 and 2021, in Burkina Faso in 2022 and most recently in Niger in July 2023. With the inauguration of Nigeria’s President Ahmed Tinubu as head of the ECOWAS, the body reacted by suspending all three countries and imposed heavy sanctions on Niger and Mali. The sanctions not only hurt their economies badly, it undermined their ongoing efforts to shake off the yoke imposed by their long political, economic, cultural and monetary association with France. Their expectation that ECOWAS would understand their actions was not met as the body was more occupied with the effort to curtail the tendency in the Sahel to resort to military coups as a way to get into power. The belief in many quarters is that ECOWAS has lent itself to Western interests who are using the body to sabotage efforts at self determination among the Sahel nations and their vow to tackle the rise of violent armed groups in their countries.

So far, the “Alliance of Sahel States” have cut military ties with France, the former colonial power and in September 2023, two months after the Niger coup that infuriated the leadership of ECOWAS, the three countries had signed a mutual defence pact to assist one another against armed rebellion or external aggression. It is either a reaction to the threat that ECOWAS would attack Niger following the military coup of last July or a natural consequence to their new alliance. The question is: how will ECOWAS fare without the Sahel nations? The events of the past few weeks have sparked statements that the regional body may indeed be heading for bigger cracks as others who are disgruntled with the body’s lackluster performance since formation in 1975, may be emboldened to seek alliances elsewhere. The failure to promote economic integration in member states has brought about serious economic downturn in the region.

The direct consequences have been restiveness, rampant coups and sharp rise in criminal activities as the people’s natural resources are being stolen on an alarming scale. How well the body has succeeded with the key objective of promoting cooperation and integration of member-countries, is another matter. It has spectacularly failed in the effort to enforce a policy of free movement, a uniform monetary policy, establishment of a common market and other parameters that underline an economic union. It has only paid lip service to the policy of liberalisation of trade by the abolition, among member-states, of customs duties levied on imports and exports, and the abolition of non-tariff barriers in order to establish a free trade area within the region.

It can equally be argued that the threat to attack Niger, militarily, during the face-off over the removal of its elected President was a departure from the principle of non- interference in the internal affairs of member States. The withdrawal of the Sahel nations is not only a “serious diplomatic meltdown”, as Atiku Abubakar stated; it has implications for Nigeria’s economy, especially in the Northern states which freely trade with their northern neighbours. It also has serious implications for security in Nigeria, especially the fight against terrorism, banditry and kidnapping that has increasingly gained ground in the country. How President Bola Tinubu, who also doubles as ECOWAS President, responds to this development, will determine the future of the body and how it will be impacted by the withdrawal of the Sahel nations.