Lawrence Olaoye 
- …backs World Bank’s 3.6% projection .
- ..says country’s prospects strong
Following the downgrade of Nigeria’s economic growth forecast by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) from 3.2 per cent to 3.0 per cent in 2025, on the back of the global oil slump, a media think tank, the Independent Media and Policy Initiative (IMPI), has questioned the rationale for the projection.
According to the independent media body, the Nigerian economy has, of late, not been solely dependent on oil, especially with the substantial growth in the country’s non-oil export yearon-year as a result of ongoing economic diversification and the impact of government policies.
In a statement signed by its Chairman, Dr Omoniyi Akinsiju, IMPI argued that it was more favourably disposed to the seven per cent growth forecast by the Minister of Finance and Coordinating Minister of the Economy, Wale Edun. It said: “In its economic outlook, the IMF downgraded Nigeria’s economic growth forecast for 2025 by 0.2 percentage points to 3.0 per cent, down from 3.2 per cent, while growth for 2026 was also revised downward by 0.3 percentage points to 2.7 per cent.
“The IMF justified this forecast by citing projected lower global oil prices as a significant risk to the country’s fiscal and external balances. We wonder how a single factor can be responsible for the projected massive decline in the size of an economy, moreso, when Nigeria is moving away from its dependence on crude oil earnings. “However, the World Bank’s projection, on the other hand, offers a more optimistic view. In its report, the World Bank projected that Nigeria’s economy would grow by 3.6 per cent in 2025, building on an estimated 3.4 per cent expansion in 2024 and, thereafter, strengthening to 3.8 per cent by 2027.
“The bank credited the federal administration’s possible sustenance of economic reforms with the gradual stabilisation of the macroeconomic environment. Critical to the World Bank’s projection is the expected improvement in the performance of the non-oil sectors, mainly services such as financial services, telecommunications, and information technology, as well as easing inflationary pressures and improved business sentiment.” IMPI also argued that it was not unusual for countries to pick holes in IMF’s projections while citing the examples of Mexico and Zambia where it was proved wrong.
“IMF’s GDP data discrepancies are not unique to Nigeria. At different times, its country members worldwide have had cause to dispute the body’s projections on various grounds. Mexico, for instance, has also disagreed with the IMF on its forecasts. “In its World Economic Outlook, the IMF projected a 0.3 per cent contraction in Mexico’s economic growth for 2025, down from the Fund’s January forecast of a 1.4 per cent expansion, as US tariffs bite into exports.
“In dismissing the IMF’s forecast, the Mexican President, Claudia Sheinbaum, declared: “We do not know what it is based on. We disagree. We have our economic models, which the finance ministry has, that do not coincide with this projection.”
“She added that public investments would prevent the economy from contracting. She touted her government’s “Plan Mexico,” an effort to boost domestic industry amid tariffs US President Donald Trump imposed on some imports from Mexico.
“From the foregoing, it is clear why Nigerians should not take the recent IMF’s negative economic projections very seriously. Experience has shown that several IMF projections on developing economies, such as ours, often prove inaccurate. “In 2008, the IMF predicted that Zambia would be hit by the fall in copper prices during the financial crisis. The IMF was proven wrong as the Zambian economy survived the global downturn.”
