Abdulwahab Isa 
US President, Donald Trump, notched up his trade policy tariff war by imposing hikes on other countries. Nigeria, Ghana, and other African nations come into the foray. The development got experts worrying about the vulnerability of Nigeria’s economy, ABDULWAHAB ISA reports
Background
The tariff policy war ignited by the United States’ Donald Trump against a few countries—China, Canada, and Mexico—last month is raging fiercely, nonstop.
An undeterred Trump has extended the US import ban protection policy to other nations in the second batch of his tariff hike policy. Countries affected in the second batch include Nigeria , South Africa, Namibia, and others.
In addition, Trump doubled down on import tariff hikes on China and other European countries, an action that elicited outrage.
He declared a 10 per cent baseline tax on imports from 185 countries and even higher tariff rates on dozens of others, including Nigeria, on which he slammed a 14 per cent tariff regime.
At a briefing at the White House, Trump said the United States would charge a 34 per cent tax on imports from China, a 20 percent tax on imports from the European Union (EU), 25 per cent on South Korea, 24 per cent on Japan, and 32 per cent on Taiwan.
Aside from Nigeria, some African countries that will bear the brunt of the new policy include Algeria (30 per cent), Lesotho (50 per cent), Mauritius (40 per cent), Kenya (10 per cent), Namibia (21 per cent), and Ethiopia, as well as Ghana (10 per cent) apiece.
South Africa was handed down a reciprocal tariff of 30 per cent. In his usual aggressive rhetoric, the American President said America built the global trade system after World War II, declaring, “Our country has been looted, pillaged, raped, and plundered,” by other nations.
He declared a national economic emergency to launch the tariffs, expected to produce hundreds of billions in annual revenues. He promised that factory jobs will return to the United States as a result of the taxes.
Retaliatory responses
Nations hit by Trump’s tariff hike are responding accordingly with retaliations. Nigeria had previously banned 25 US products. They are in different product categories.
These include agriculture, pharmaceuticals, beverages, and consumer goods. The United States Trade Representative (USTR) berated Nigeria for imposing an import ban on 25 different product categories, which it claimed was impacting American exporters.
The USTR said import restrictions placed on items like beef, pork, poultry, fruit juices, medications, and spirits limit U.S. market access and reduce export opportunities.
According to USTR, “Nigeria’s import ban on 25 different product categories impacts U.S. exporters, particularly in agriculture, pharmaceuticals, beverages, and consumer goods.
“These policies create significant trade barriers that lead to lost revenue for U.S. businesses looking to expand in the Nigerian market.’’ The USTR stated this in a post on X highlighting in what it described as unfair trade practices against the U.S.
The USTR emphasized that such practices threaten the viability of American businesses, from farmers and fishers to manufacturers and pharmaceutical firms.
In some cases, the agency linked the impact of these restrictions to job losses and the closure of businesses across the United States.
The USTR said India also banned imports of U.S. ethanol for fuel use, similar to what Thailand did by restricting imports of fuel ethanol, requiring approval and issuance of a permit.
According to the U.S. trade organisation, securing market access to India and Thailand for exports of U.S. fuel ethanol would result in at least an additional $414 million in annual export value.
US, China in a tango
China responded with a retaliatory higher tariff enforcement, as Beijing struck back at President Trump’s ballooning tariffs, raising its duties on imports of US goods to 125% from 84%.
The countermeasures, expectedly, will deepen the existing trade animosity between the US and China. The trade conflict has weighed on investor sentiment.
Responding to China’s retaliatory tariff imposition, U.S. President Donald Trump issued a stark warning to China, threatening to impose an additional 50% tariff on Chinese imports unless Beijing retracted its recently announced 34% retaliatory duty on U.S. goods.
The ultimatum of 24 hours was delivered via a social media post on Monday, intensifying trade conflict between the world’s two largest economies.
In his post, Trump stated, “If China does not withdraw its 34% increase above their already long-term trading abuses by tomorrow, April 8th, 2025, the United States will impose additional tariffs on China of 50%, effective April 9th.”
When on April 9 the US new tariff on China went into effect, the Chinese government rather than sit back also further increased its tariff on US, bringing to 124 per cent.
This led to a major crisis with the global market reacting negatively to this development as most stocks recorded a fall and loses. While the US has paused some tariffs for countries willing to negotiate, it has increased levies in China.
China, in response, raised tariffs on US products and warned of potential global trade fallout, urging the WTO to examine the impact of these tariffs.
Beijing hinted it would not engage in further tariff hikes — even if Washington continues its escalations. The White House clarified on Thursday that US tariffs on Chinese imports are now at least 145%, not the 125% that Trump had said previously.
Trump and members of his Cabinet attempted to reassure investors that things would “work out” with China. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said he was confident the US would be in a place of “great certainty” after the “pause” as the administration looks to negotiate new trade deals with partners.
EU joined the fray
In what seems to be a coordinated fight against the US, the European Union (EU) joined the tariff retaliatory fight against the US. It approved retaliatory tariffs on $23 billion in U.S. goods as “countermeasures” against President Donald Trump’s tariffs.
“The EU considers US tariffs unjustified and damaging, causing economic harm to both sides, as well as the global economy,” the European Commission said in a statement.
It added, “The EU has stated its clear preference to find negotiated outcomes with the US, which would be balanced and mutually beneficial.” The tariffs will begin to go into effect on April 15, though the European Commission did not immediately provide a list of affected goods.
The commission also said the tariffs can be suspended at any time, “should the US agree to a fair and balanced negotiated outcome,” European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said, saying the European Union, a 27-country bloc, is “ready to negotiate” with Trump over tariffs, noting that “we have offered zero-forzero tariffs for industrial goods.”
Watching helplessly, the World Trade Organisation (WTO), the body representing the world’s multilateral trading system, expressed grave concern and opposition to the US’s tariff actions, viewing them as potentially harmful to global trade.
Protests in US
Displeased with Trump’s tariff hike policy, crowds of protesters gathered in cities across the US and took Trump to the cleaners.
In their numbers, they denounced President Trump in what was considered the largest nationwide show of opposition since the president took office in January. The “hands off” protest planners aimed to hold rallies in 1,200 locations, including in all 50 US states.
Hundreds of thousands of people turned out in Boston, Chicago, Los Angeles, New York, and Washington, DC, among other cities. Protesters cited grievances with Trump’s agenda ranging from social to economic issues.
The protest came days after Trump’s announcement that the US would impose import tariffs on most countries around the world; gatherings were also held outside the US, including in London, Paris, and Berlin.
In Boston, some protesters said they were motivated by immigration raids on US university students that have led to arrests and deportation proceedings.
Law student Katie Smith told BBC News that she was motivated by Turkish international student Rumeysa Ozturk, whose arrest near Boston-area Tufts University by masked US agents was caught on camera last month.
“You can stand up today or you can be taken later,” she said, adding, “I’m not usually a protest girlie.” In London, protesters held signs reading, “WTAF America?”, “Stop hurting people,” and “He’s an idiot.” They chanted “hands off Canada,” “hands off Greenland,” and “hands off Ukraine,” referencing Trump’s changes to US foreign policy.
Trump has repeatedly expressed interest in annexing Canada and Greenland. He also got into a public dispute with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and has struggled to negotiate a peace deal between Ukraine and Russia.
In Washington, DC, thousands of protesters gathered to watch speeches by Democratic lawmakers. Many remarks focused on the role played in Trump’s administration by wealthy donors—most notably Elon Musk, who has served as an advisor to the president and spearheaded an effort to dramatically cut spending and the federal workforce.
Florida Congressman Maxwell takeover of our government.” Frost denounced the “billionaire “When you steal from the people, expect the people to rise up. At the ballot box and in the streets,” he shouted.
Budget assumptions
The US serial import tariff imposition comes at a time when the federal government’s 2025 budget has been passed by the National Assembly.
However, with the 14 per cent import tariffs imposed on Nigeria’s non-oil sector goods, the Nigerian government is juggling options that will shield the economy from the US tariff hike policy.
Minister of Finance and Coordinating Minister of Economy Mr Wale Edun said the federal government was considering a number of options.
This, he said, includes going back to the drawing board in the event that the United States’ 14 percent import tariff imposed on Nigeria’s goods gets prolonged.
While he ruled out the option of tinkering with the 2025 budget, Edun said members of EMT may take a second look at 2025 budget assumptions with a view to taking an informed decision.
“What I said was that the Economic Management Team, amongst others, would look and make sure that they are on top of the situation. The US is at the center of this movement of tariffs based on the announcements made in April to exempt mineral exports, including oil.
‘‘So therefore, it’s the price effect, the oil price effect, that may well feed through. And it is the job and responsibility of the EMT of President Bola Ahmed Tinubu, among others, to look at the various scenarios that might play out.
‘‘There’s global uncertainty on a huge level, so nobody knows exactly what will happen with the announcement that has been made. We’re not sure what will be delayed, what will be reversed, or what will be implemented.
So, it is not an announcement that the budget is being reviewed. It’s an announcement that it is our responsibility to look at the various scenarios and options and advise the government accordingly.”
Experts’ views
Experts have raised concerns about the implications of the US tariff hike on Nigeria’s economy. Senior Market Analyst at FXTM, Lukman Otunuga, noted that these tariffs “may impact growth given how Nigeria’s exports to the US have ranged between $5-6bn annually.
While supporting the Minister on the severity of the impact, Otunuga said, “One could argue that Nigeria is somewhat insulated given how over 90 per cent of exports are comprised of crude oil and gas products.
‘‘Nevertheless, growing concerns around Trump’s trade war tipping the global economy into a recession are a major risk for emerging markets. Beyond trade developments, Nigeria remains exposed to volatile oil prices.
‘‘Last week, Brent and WTI both recently logged their steepest weekly losses in over a year. Oil prices remain pressured by deepening trade tensions and OPEC+ announcing an unexpectedly large supply boost.
‘‘Crude oil has shed over 13 percent this month, dragging year-todate losses closer to 15 percent. Such a development may complicate the government’s ability to implement the 2025 budget based on oil prices at $75 a barrel.”
He added, “The sharp selloff in oil could mean more pain for the naira, which is among the worst-performing emerging market currencies. The naira has shed four percent year-todate versus the dollar and may extend losses if lower oil translates to falling foreign exchange reserves.
On the data front, Nigeria will reveal its latest inflation figures in midApril. Back in February, the annual inflation rate dropped to 23.2 per cent, its lowest level since June 2023, while food inflation also cooled to 23.5 per cent—its lowest rate since September 2022.
While the decline in CPI has been attributed to a technical adjustment, further signs of cooling price pressures could spark discussions around potential CBN rate cuts in the second half of 2025.”
A former chief economist at Zenith Bank, Marcel Okeke, also expressed strong concerns about Nigeria’s capacity to respond to such tariffs and argued that negotiation was its best bet.
“Negotiation is the only viable option” for smaller, weaker countries like Nigeria in such situations. He went on to suggest that Nigeria should engage in diplomatic talks with the US to seek a reduction in the tariff.
Nigeria’s continued vulnerability to the volatility of global oil prices adds another layer of concern as Okeke warned about the potential challenges facing the 2025 budget, which is based on an oil production benchmark of over two million barrels per day and an oil price of $75 per barrel.
He pointed out that Nigeria’s oil production is around 1.5 million barrels per day as of April, falling significantly short of the budget projection.
Additionally, he notes that the price of crude oil has started going down and is likely to continue this trend, posing a “potential danger for the budget,” especially considering the existing deficit budget.
Experts said Trump’s policies risk a sudden economic slowdown as consumers and businesses could face sharp price hikes on autos, clothes, and other goods.
