FELIX NWANERI reports 
- Atiku, Tinubu, Obi, Kwankwaso, 14 others battle ready for presidential poll
The stage is set for an interesting contest for Nigeria’s number one position as 18 candidates square against each other in this weekend’s presidential election, FELIX NWANERI reports
It is a week of decision as over 93 million Nigerians are expected to elect a new president along with members of the National Assembly across the country’s 36 states and Federal Capital Territory.
The exercise is the seventh consecutive general election since Nigeria’s return to civil rule in 1999. The president of Nigeria is elected using a modified two-round system.
To be elected in the first round, a candidate must receive a plurality of the votes and over 25 per cent of votes in at least 24 of the 36 states. If no candidate passes this threshold, a second round will be held between the top candidate and the next candidate to have received a majority of votes in the highest number of states.
Saturday’s election, which will produce President Muhammadu Buhari’s successor, is likely to be the mostly keenly contested in Nigeria’s political history given the personalities involved and the state of the nation.
Eighteen candidates are contesting the election and they include ex-Vice President Atiku Abubakar (Peoples Democratic Party – PDP); a former governor of Lagos State, Bola Tinubu (All Progressives Congress – APC); a former governor of Anambra State Peter Obi (Labour Party – LP) and a former governor of Kano State, Rabiu Kwankwaso (New Nigeria Peoples Party (NNPP).
Others are Christopher Imumolen (Accord Party – AP), Hamza Al-Mustapha (Action Alliance – AA), Omoyele Sowore (African Action Congress – AAC), Dumebi Kachikwu (African Democratic Congress – ADC), Yusuf Sani (Action Democratic Party – ADP), Peter Umeadi (All Progressives Grand Alliance – APGA) and Charles Nnadi (Action Peoples Party – APP).
Also on the list are Princess Chichi Ojei (Allied Peoples Movement – APM), Sunday Adenuga (Boot Party – BP), Felix Osakwe (National Rescue Movement – NRM), Kola Abiola (Peoples Redemption Party – PRP), Adewole Adebayo (Social Democratic Party – SDP), Abdumalik Ado-Ibrahim Young Progressives Party – YPP) and Dan Nwanyanwu (Zenith Labour Party – ZLP).
The National Assembly election, which will hold simultaneously with the presidential poll, has 1,101 candidates battling for 109 senatorial seats and 3,122 for the 360 House of Representatives seats, making a total of 4,223 candidates contesting for 469 federal legislative positions.
A breakdown of the candidates’ list for the national elections according to gender shows that there is only one female out of the 18 candidates for the presidential election – Ojei of APM.
This represents just 2.77 per cent of the contestants. None of the parties fielded a female vice presidential candidate. For the senatorial election; out of the 1,101 candidates vying for 109 Senate seats, 92 are women (8.35 per cent), while 288 women are contesting for House of Representatives out of the total 3,122 contestants, representing 9.2 per cent. Cumulatively, there are 381 women among the total of 4,241 contestants for the Office of President and National Assembly seats.
This represents 8.9 per cent of the contestants. A state-by-state analysis shows that of the 36 states of Nigeria, including the Federal Capital Territory (FCT), five states did not field any woman as a candidate for the Senate, while one state did not field any woman as a candidate for the House of Representatives. The states lacking in this regard are Kano, Sokoto, Taraba, Yobe and Zamfara for senatorial election and Jigawa for the House of Representatives poll.
Frosty campaign Campaigns for the 2023 presidential and National Assembly elections, which commenced on September 28, are expected to end on Thursday (February 23) in line with section 94(1) of the Electoral Act, 2022, which states that “campaign in public by every political party shall commence 150 days before polling day and end 24 hours prior to that day.”
The campaign trails of some of the presidential candidates, particularly the frontrunners – Atiku, Tinubu, Obi and Kwankwaso – have taken them round the 36 states of the federation and the Federal Capital Territory, while the grand finale of their rallies are billed to hold between today and Wednesday in selected cities across the country. So far, the campaigns have been frosty, with name-calling and incitement aimed at scoring cheap political goals by the leading candidates, dominating discussions rather than issues, particularly, how the candidates intend to address issues of national concern if elected.
Critical among major challenges the country is faced at the moment are growing insecurity across the country, which many say, portends a grave danger to the country’s unity and the poverty level that has left more than 150 million out of the 200 million population living on less than $1.90 a day. The quest for support has also seen some of the candidates looking beyond the shores of Nigeria given recent separate appearance at the Chatham House, London, by three of the four major contenders – Tinubu, Obi and Kwankwaso – to discuss their respective manifestos.
Atiku, who didn’t show up at the independent policy institute despite an invitation extend to him, however met with some officials of United Kingdom government.
Catalogue of promises
As expected, the campaigns have also seen the candidates making several promises in the course of interacting with the different stakeholders although many faulted them for not dwelling on the specifics of how they intend to realise the programmes contained in their respective manifestos Atiku’s policy document tagged: ‘My Covenant with Nigerians,’ is an update on the 2019 document he presented when he contested against President Buhari.
Summed up to a 5-point development agenda, the PDP’s candidate has promised to restore Nigeria’s unity through equality, social justice and cooperation among various people.
The document further reveals that Atiku will establish a strong and effective democratic government that will guarantee the safety and security of lives and property. The former vice president, if elected as Nigeria’s President, according to the document will build a strong and prosperous economy, creating jobs and wealth as well as lifting millions out of poverty.
The document further says that at the centre of its policy, Atiku’s government will promote a strong and true federal system. A key component of the policy agenda is to improve and strengthen the education system and equip students with all necessary skills “required to be competitive in the new global order which is driven by innovation, science, and technology.”
On the economy, Atiku said his agenda is guided by three basic principles – re-affirming the criticality of private-sector leadership and greater sector participation in development; while also repositioning the public sector to focus on its core responsibility. He promised to continue with the economic policies the Olusegun Obasanjo administration implemented, particularly, the privatisation of ailing public enterprises. He also stressed the importance of a private sector-driven economy, saying the greatest economies in the world are private-sector-focused. “Most successful economies allow the private sector to play its role and we saw prosperity during Obasanjo’s administration,” he said.
According to him, rather than borrowing money to build roads and bridges, the government could concession such to the private sector, which would help create the needed jobs and prosperity. He also promised to break government’s monopoly in all infrastructure sectors, including refineries, rail transportation and power transmission. To avert persistent price distortions, according to the policy document, the current interventionist exchange rate management policy would be eliminated. Atiku also promised to rely more on optimizing the fiscal space to generate more revenues for development.
He projected a fiscal regime that is stable and predictable and can clearly bridge the gap between the national revenue yield and national expenditure. He highlighted some of the fiscal strategies his administration will employ to include domestic reforms to improve Internally Generated Revenue (IGR), promoting export growth to improve foreign exchange earnings, blocking leakages and financing projects through strategic partnerships with the private sector
On security, Atiku said he will ensure more recruitment of personnel, purchase more equipment, train more personnel, and commit more funds to the security agencies. He also declared support for state police. Atiku stressed that he had been an apostle of resource control, devolution of power, and restructuring, even when the North was not favourably disposed to them.
He disclosed that he had assembled a pool of constitutional lawyers to help him put together legislation that would be forwarded to the National Assembly to facilitate the necessary amendments to the constitution to ensure restructuring. Tinubu’s policy document tagged “Renewed hope: Action Plan for a Better Nigeria” offered directions on his plans for security, economy and foreign policy.
On his plans for the economy, the APC candidate said he will engage the private sector to drive economic development across the country. “My belief that the private sector is the fulcrum of economic progress is evident and documented.
However, fundamental flaws with the basic design of our national economy imperil the private sector from playing the role it ought to and adding the value it is capable of. In this instance, the government must act as a catalyst.
“We shall do this on all fronts. We will address the conflict between monetary and fiscal policies. Budgeting will be based on the projected spending levels needed to push real annual growth rate above seven per cent, while reducing the unemployment rate, so that we can double the economy in ten years,” he said.
Besides promising to phase out fuel subsidy, the APC candidat pledged to accelerate full implementation of the Petroleum Industry Act and implement additional favourable policies to attract investment in deepwater assets within six months.
On forex crisis hindering the economy, the document stated: “The recent dip in our exchange rate is primarily due to global supply and production shortfalls caused by global factors well beyond the scope of our control. Our diminished levels of oil production and the modest capacity of our manufacturing sector to expand production both serve to compound the pressure on the naira. “Further compounding our difficulty is the fact that we are tied to an ineffective regime of multiple, somewhat arbitrary, exchange rates.
This situation gives rise to financial dislocation, currency speculation and arbitrage. These practices divert much-needed funds away from productive endeavours that could employ hundreds of thousands of people and create products that improve average living conditions.
“To ensure that exchange rate policy harmonises with our goals of optimal growth and job creation driven by industrial, agricultural and infrastructural expansion, we will work with the Central Bank and the financial sector to carefully review and better optimise the exchange rate regime.
Our economic policies shall be guided by our desire for a stronger, more stable Naira founded upon a vibrant and productive real economy.” On agriculture, the APC candidate said his administration will place emphasis on the use of technology to improve the agricultural sector for better production and contribution to the nation’s economy.
According to him, “the present administration has invested heavily in agriculture, providing loans and expanding the country’s total acreage of cultivated land. We will build on this, but our focus will be on using technology and expertise to accelerate growth and development by providing the critical infrastructure necessary to achieve the commodity transformations in the agriculture value chain.
“Roads, rail, access to ports, and storage infrastructure are what we require to radically transform the agriculture sector and increase its value to the nation. Providing these will be the areas of our focus so that the full potential of our agro economy can be achieved, and we can reap the benefits in jobs, improved economic opportunities and increased prosperity.”
Tinubu also said the current situation where the Federal Government fixes petrol price is a broken model. According to him, the Federal Government as regulator and operator, and price fixer is a broken model and one that he intends to fix if elected.
“We have privatised power distribution in Nigeria and generation to a certain degree. What we need to do, going forward is to improve the enabling environment and further reform the legal and regulatory framework to attract more private investments in the sector as we have experienced in the telecom industry,” he said. On power, he said his administration will be committed to energy sufficiency through the reform of the sector. His words: “Energy supply is another priority.
There is no version of the world where Nigeria’s ambition for self can be achieved without solving the problem of how to provide energy to homes and businesses across the country.”
On education, he said he will provide student loans and reform the Almajiri system in the northern part of the country. He added that he would recruit and train more teachers as a way of boosting education.
He also promised to establish technology hubs, where youths can even develop technological languages on their own and make a better 21st-century approach to governance in Nigeria. Giving a clue on how he intends to tackle insecurity that is ravaging almost all parts of the country, Tinubu said his administration will establish a highly trained and disciplined anti-terrorist squad to tackle the problem.
For Obi, whose manifesto whose titled “Our Pact with Nigerians: Creating a New Nigeria,” promises seven key priority areas needed to jumpstart the economy. Some of the priority areas according to the pact include to secure the country, end banditry and insurgency; and unite the country in such a way “that no one is left behind.”
The LP candidate said his adminstration will shift emphasis from consumption to production by running a production-centered economy that is driven by an agrarian revolution and export-oriented industrialisation.
“With about 70 million hectares of arable land, we will pursue an agricultural revolution through proper segmentation of Nigeria to activate and harness the factor endowments of different parts of the country for both rapid and mechanized agricultural development and as a pillar for Nigeria’s other sectoral development and industrialization,” he said. Obi promised to restructure the polity through effective legal and institutional civil service; leapfrog Nigeria into the 4th Industrial Revolution (4IR) through application of scientific and technological innovations to create reforms to entrench the rule of law; aggressively fight corruption; reduce cost of governance and establish an honest and efficient a digital economy.
He also pledged to build expansive and world-class infrastructure for efficient power scholarship and research, quality healthcare, and entrepreneurship.
Others, according to the document promises, are enhancing the human capital of Nigerian youths for productivity and through integrated public-private partnerships and education. Obi also said his administration will conduct “an afro-centric diplomacy that protects the rights of Nigerian citizens abroad and advance the economic interests of Nigerians and Nigerian businesses in a changing world.”
He also stressed the need to have a single, clear, coherent, and consistent communication system to keep the government accountable, citizens engaged and involved in the development process.
“It is important for institutions to be able to provide strong leadership, coordination capability, partner and engage collaboratively with all relevant stakeholders in an environment that mutually reinforces values,” he explained.
kwankwaso’s policy document titled “My Pledges To You” shows that he will pay more attention to education and make all entry examinations into tertiary institutions free for citizens. The NNPP candidate promised that the problem of two million out-of- school children would be over in four years. “Our revolution in the education sector will be guided by the philosophy that education is a public good. We shall reform the education sector in its entirety.
We will eradicate illiteracy in Nigeria,” he said. Other plans include improving non-oil revenues, improving crude oil production to meet the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) targets, curbing inflation, preventing corruption, wastages and theft.
On restructuring, he said his “government will listen to Nigerians. We are not going to be rigid on restructuring. Whatever Nigerians want will be given to them. These documents will be transmitted into the local languages so that people who don’t read or understand English will read.” Kwankwaso also promised to recruit 750,000 personnel into the nation’s armed forces bringing the total number to one million.
Security worries despite assurances
Despite repeated assurances by the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) that it is ready for the polls as scheduled, security concerns have been a major issue. The fears still persist barely four days to the presidential and National Assembly elections.
Many are of the opinion that the elections may be postponed if nothing urgent is done to contain rising security challenges across the country.
The concern over insecurity is not out of place. From the Boko Haram insurgency ravaging the North-East to banditry and kidnapping in the North-West and North Central; farmers/herders clash in the North Central as well as the entire South; militancy in the South-South and agitation for self-determination in the South-East, the story of Nigeria is that of a nation at war. In the North-East, the Boko Haram insurgency driven by Islamic extremists has not only claimed thousands of lives and property, it has turned millions of Nigerians to refugees in their own country.
Across most northern states and even neigbouring Chad, Niger Republic and Cameroon, are camps for Internally Displaced Persons (IDPs) from Nigeria. For the bandits ravaging the North-West, kidnapping for ransom and cattle rustling have become a lucrative industry.
In the oil-rich but impoverished South-South, sabotage of pipelines is still legendary although the federal government recently launched an onslaught on perpetrators. Separatist agitation in the South-East by the Indigenous People of Biafra (IPOB) and other secessionist groups has not only grounded economic activities in the geopolitical zone, but led to loss of lives and wanton destruction of infrastructure.
The fears over the security situation seem to have been worsened by the tension over the Naira redesign by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), which has left many Nigerians cash strapped. Some Nigerians have taken to the streets in that past few days to protest their frustrations over the policy.
INEC chairman, Prof. Mahmood Yakubu, who has repeatedly raised the red flag over rising insecurity and its implication on the elections equally decried attacks on the commission’s facilities in some states of the federation, particularly Imo, Osun, Ebonyi and Ogun states in the build-up to the polls.
At the last count, over 50 offices of the electoral commission have been attacked by hoodlums since 2019 across 21 states. Although no group has claimed responsibility for the attacks, some stakeholders point the way of fifth columnists.
The security situation and attacks on its facilities, notwithstanding, INEC insists that there is no going back to the elections. In a presentation titled: “Nigeria’s 2023 elections: Preparations and priorities for electoral integrity and inclusion,” at Chatham House on January 18, Yakubu averred that there are neither considerations nor plans for postponement of the polls.
He declared: “May I, on this note, once again reiterate our position that the commission is not contemplating, let alone planning, to postpone the 2023 general election. We are going ahead to conduct the election as scheduled.” Yakubu also spoke on INEC’s readiness for a presidential run-off if no winner emerges after the February 25 poll.
He said INEC had always prepared for the possibility of a presidential run-off in the last three elections and this year’s presidential election won’t be an exception.
“The truth of the matter is that for every general election, the commission prepares, at least for some time now, in the last three electoral cycles, we also prepare for that possibility. The reason is: Until the constitution was amended, there was only one week for presidential run-off in case it happens.
“With the number of registered voters we have, it is almost impossible to print the ballot papers required and the result sheet and deliver them to locations and conduct the elections as required. So, every election since the last three electoral cycle, we also make provisions for the possibility of a presidential run-off in case it happens. If it happens, then we’ll have no issues, and this year is no exception,” he said.
The Federal Government, on its part, has repeatedly assured Nigerians of adequate security before, during and after the polls. President Buhari, reiterated this on Thursday in a national broadcast. He assured the electorate that adequate security has been provided to ensure a hitch-free exercise and urged Nigerians to vote for their candidates of choice in the February 25 and March 11 elections, assuring them that their votes will count.
His words: “I urge every citizen, therefore, to go out to vote for their candidates of choice without fear, because security shall be provided and your vote shall count. I however admonish you to eschew violence and avoid actions capable of disrupting the electoral processes.”
Concerns over vote-buying
Despite the fact that Nigeria has strengthened her electoral laws and invested in biometric technology that have reduced election rigging, there are fears that vote buying, which is gradually becoming a norm in the polity, may mar the elections.
Whereas money had always played a major role in Nigeria’s elections, it is becoming clear that it is now the major determinant of electoral contests given the outcome of the recent primary elections of the major political parties to nominate candidates for the 2023 general election and the June 18 governorship election in Ekiti State.
Massive vote buying was reported during the election and the major culprits were the leading political parties. Agents of the parties were said to have openly induced voters with money ranging from N5,000 to N10,000 per vote.
The voters were in turn asked to flag thumb-printed ballot papers as proof of voting in the specified manner in what was termed “see and buy,” a development that was confirmed by the various teams that monitored the election. Interestingly, inducement of the voters was done in the open even sections 124 and 130 of the Electoral Act (as amended) clearly criminalise the act as bribery and conspiracy.
Section 130, particularly states: “A person who (a) corruptly by himself or by any other person at any time after the date of an election has been announced, directly or indirectly gives or provides or pays money to or for any person for the purpose of corruptly influencing that person or any other person to vote or refrain from voting at such election, or on account of such person or any other person having voted or refrained from voting at such election; or (b) being a voter, corruptly accepts or takes money or any other inducement during any of the period stated in paragraph (a) of this section, commits an offence and is liable on conviction to a fine of N100,000 or 12 months imprisonment or both.”
However, despite the fears over vote buying, some analysts believe that the menace is likely to be addressed by the Naira redesign policy, which has succeeded reducing the volume of money in circulation.
