Oladipupo Awojobi 
By any political measure, Nigeria’s ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) has never been more dominant. With control of about 30 states across the federation, the party’s growing grip on power is fueling intense debate among political stakeholders, civil society groups and ordinary Nigerians over the possibility of the country drifting towards a de facto one-party state.
From the presidency to the National Assembly and now the majority of state governments, the APC’s expanding influence has altered Nigeria’s political landscape in ways not seen since the early years of the Fourth Republic.
While party loyalists described the development as a vote of confidence in APC leadership and policies, critics warned that the imbalance poses serious risks to democratic pluralism, accountability and good governance. At the heart of the concern is the visibly weakened opposition.
Once formidable parties such as the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) and other smaller platforms have been plagued by internal crises, defections, litigations and leadership tussles.
These challenges have made it easier for the ruling party to consolidate power, often through high-profile defections by governors, lawmakers and political heavyweights seeking relevance or protection within the centre.
Political analysts argued that democracy thrives on robust competition, where opposition parties are strong enough to challenge policies, question excesses and offer alternative visions of governance.
With the opposition increasingly fragmented, many fear that checks and balances are gradually eroding. “Democracy is not just about winning elections; it is about choices.
“When one party becomes overwhelmingly dominant, the danger is that citizens are left with fewer real options, and governance can slide into complacency,” says a political analyst.
Nigeria’s political history offers cautionary tales. During the First Republic, the dominance of regional parties deepened ethnic divisions and contributed to instability. In the military era, the absence of political plurality led to authoritarian rule.
Even in the Fourth Republic, attempts at creating a one-party structure have often been resisted by Nigerians who associate such arrangements with repression and lack of accountability.
Many commentators note that the fear is not necessarily that Nigeria will officially declare a one-party system, but that it may become one in practice; where opposition parties exist in name but lack the strength to influence governance meaningfully.
The APC, however, dismissed claims of an impending one-party state as exaggerated and alarmist. Party leaders insist that their dominance is the result of electoral victories freely given by Nigerians and the inability of opposition parties to put their houses in order.
According to them, defections into the APC are voluntary decisions by politicians who believe the party offers better prospects for governance and development. They also argue that Nigeria’s constitution guarantees multiparty democracy and freedom of association, making it impossible for any party to legally enforce a one-party system.
Supporters of the ruling party further contend that what Nigeria needs is effective governance, not an artificially balanced political system.
“If the APC is delivering, Nigerians will support it. If it fails, voters will reject it at the polls,” a party chieftain said. Despite these assurances, civil society organisations warn that democracy goes beyond electoral wins.
They argue that when political power is excessively concentrated, institutions may become weaker, dissenting voices marginalised, and internal party democracy undermined.
There are also fears that dominance at the state level could translate into undue influence over electoral processes, security agencies and public institutions, making it harder for opposition parties to compete fairly in future elections. For many Nigerians, the issue is not partisan but existential: how to preserve a democratic system where leaders are accountable and power can change hands peacefully.
Political analysts speak on one-party state in Nigeria
Political analysts and democracy advocates have raised fresh concerns over the possibility of Nigeria drifting towards a one-party state, warning that the growing dominance of the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) could weaken democratic accountability if left unchecked.
With the APC controlling the presidency, the National Assem- bly and about 30 states of the fed- eration, analysts say the shrinking influence of opposition parties has created an unhealthy political imbalance. They argue that while Nigeria remains constitutionally a multiparty democracy, the concentration of power in the hands of one party poses risks to good governance and institutional independence.
According to a political analyst; Dr. Sadiq Musa, democracy thrives on competition and credible alternatives. He noted that “when opposition parties are weak or fragmented, the ruling party may become complacent, and citizens are left with limited choices.
This is how democratic decline often begins.” Another analyst, Mrs. Funke Adeyemi, described the wave of defections to the ruling party as a troubling trend.
She said that the movement of elected officials across party lines, often without ideological justification, undermines voter confidence and weakens political parties as institutions. “Defections driven by personal ambition rather than principle erode the foundation of party politics,” she added. Some analysts, however, insisted that Nigeria is not yet on the brink of a one-party state.
They argued that the problem lies more with the internal crises plaguing opposition parties than with the dominance of the APC. According to Professor Emeka Okafor, “A one-party state cannot exist where elections are still competitive and the constitution guarantees freedom of association.
The opposition must reorganise and reconnect with the electorate.” Despite differing views, analysts agree that the current situation calls for urgent reforms to strengthen Nigeria’s democracy.
They emphasise the need for internal party democracy, credible elections, independent institutions and issue-based politics. As the 2027 general elections draw closer, the debate over Nigeria’s political direction is expected to intensify. Analysts believe the responsibility lies not only with the APC to govern responsibly but also with opposition parties to rebuild, reform and reconnect with the electorate.
Ultimately, the fear of a one-party state reflects deeper anxieties about governance, inclusion and trust in democratic institutions. Whether Nigeria’s current trajectory strengthens or weakens its democracy will depend on how power is exercised, how institutions are protected, and whether political competition remains fair, open and meaningful.
For now, the dominance of one party stands as both a symbol of political strength and a test of Nigeria’s democratic resilience.
