Analysts at the research department of Coronation Merchant Bank have said they expect the Nigerian economy to grow by 3.0 per cent this year. The analysts, who stated this while reacting to the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data for Q3’22 recently released by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), predicted that domestic and external shocks will likely continue to constrain economic growth. The analysts said: “The latest national accounts released by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) show that GDP grew by 2.3 per cent y/y in Q3‘22 compared with 3.5 per cent y/y in Q2 ‘22. Meanwhile, on a q/q basis, it grew by 9.7 per cent, reflecting increased economic activity compared with the q/q contraction of -0.4 per cent recorded in the preceding quarter.
“The y/y moderation in growth can be partly attributed to base effects, the trickle-down effect of the Russian-Ukraine crisis impacting the prices of deregulated petroleum products (such as diesel and aviation fuel), select manufacturing inputs, and the impact of recent monetary policy rate hikes aimed at combating high inflation. The oil economy contracted by -22.7 per cent y/y in Q3, compared with – 11.8 per cent y/y recorded in Q2. Meanwhile, the non-oil economy grew 4.3 per cent y/y in Q3 ’22 compared with 4.8 per cent y/y in Q2 ‘22.”
They further stated: “Based on the broad contributions to total GDP, agriculture, industry, and services accounted for 29.7 per cent, 18.4 per cent, and 51.9 per cent, of total GDP respectively in Q3‘22. The services category remains a core growth driver. “Looking ahead, the CBN expects continued output growth in the near term, but at a subdued pace. This is on the back of unfolding domestic and external shocks. The domestic shocks are triggered by insecurity, recent flood cases, deteriorating fiscal balances and potential upticks in inflation. External headwinds include uncertainties associated with the Russia-Ukraine crisis, global financial tightening and the continued lockdown of major industrial cities in China.
We see GDP growth at 3.0 per cent y/y for 2022.” New Telegraph reports that in his address at the Chartered Institute of Bankers of Nigeria’s (CIBN) 57th Annual Bankers Dinner held in Lagos recently, Governor of the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), Mr Godwin Emefiele, said the apex bank expects the country’s economy to record growth rates of 3.7 per cent and 3.74 per cent in Q3 and Q4’22 respectively. He, however, said that the CBN would continue with its tight monetary policy as part of measures to address inflationary pressures and boost capital inflows.