Sam Nkire 
For anyone who’s spent time observing Nigerian politics, it won’t be rocket science to figure out the direction political events are most likely to go, come 2027.
In Nigerian politics, incumbency, especially for serving presidents and governors is not just an advantage.
It is almost a life insurance policy. Over the last 10 years, the contest for power has been between the then ruling party in 2015, the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) and the main opposition, the All Progressives Congress (APC), which has now won three times in 2015, 2019 and 2023, during which President Muhammadu Buhari served for eight years, and now President Bola Tinubu, who has been in the saddle since May 29, 2023.
The PDP ruled between 1999 – 2015 and performed to the best of its abilities but the people judged their best as not being good enough to lift Nigeria out of poverty.
President Buhari’s regime which took office in 2015 as an APC government also left office in 2023 without accomplishing much of his promises aimed at making the lives of the average Nigerian better.
President Tinubu took over in 2023 with his core mandate being the restructuring, revamping and repositioning of the Nigerian economy.
So far, a majority of Nigerians, including political leaders from both divides, seem to be in agreement with the steps he is taking to achieve his set goals; hence the influx of people from other political parties into the ruling APC, one can confidently say.
Going by the rate at which members and leaders of the opposition political parties are trooping into the APC, it’s easy to conclude that President Tinubu must be doing many things right to attract the opposition.
Several members of the Senate and the House of Representatives have helped swell the ruling party’s majority in both chambers of parliament, making it easier to get legislation passed without much ado. Crisis broke out between the party’s main contenders, former Vice-President, Atiku Abubakar and former Governor of Rivers States, Nyesom Wike. That disagreement has not only remained but has gone from bad to worse.
The unfortunate commentary that Nigeria’s main opposition party, the PDP, is unable to put its house in order, has made it impossible for it to play its constitutional role of checks and balances on the ruling party.
This weakness has also helped it lose membership at both parliament and party membership levels.
And this development seems to be setting the stage for a fait accompli by the ruling APC to win again, if nothing changes to stem the tide and stop the wave of desertions.
President Bola Tinubu came to power in 2023, May 29, promising many reforms and changes under his Renewed Hope Agenda, which is intended to boost the economy and secure lives and property, among others.
His first step at restructuring the economy was the removal of the fuel subsidy regime which hit the general public so badly, as a huge economic shock.
However, there is no doubting the fact that Nigerians would be willing to bear the pain of economic restructuring if there is hope of sustainable security, peace and prosperity on the horizon.
Tinubu’s Renewed Hope Agenda aims to boost agriculture to achieve food security, unlock energy and natural resources for sustainable development, focus on education, infrastructure, health and Social investment, among others.
Many people including multilateral organisations buy into the agenda, if followed through in a prudent and meticulous manner.
President Tinubu believes in his agenda as a solution to Nigeria’s economic problems; and even his ardent followers bet his second-term on it.
And not just a few, but many of the opposition political party leaders and members coming over to APC are not only joining the party in power but the power behind the party, to be able to win the next election.
It also needs to be noted that Nigeria’s opposition parties, especially the PDP, have followed a gradual path towards disintegration and disunity, since the last presidential election in 2023.
The biggest opposition party in Nigeria at the moment, the PDP shows no sign it can pose a threat to the ruling APC, any time soon due to its disinclination to peace and harmony within its fold.
Before President Tinubu came to power in 2023, there had been discontent among Nigerians in the way the country was being governed.
Most decisive and celebrated show of discontent was the #EndSARS protests which took Nigeria by storm and led to shutting down many cities in its wake.
One fateful day in October 2020, predominantly young people of the country woke up to call for an end to the activities of a section of the police department called the Special Antirobbery Squad (SARS) because of police brutality, harassment and extortion of Nigerians, especially the youth.
The protests forced President Buhari to admit that at least 69 persons had died through the bullets of the SARS who sometimes shot suspects without questioning. This led to the disbandment of SARS soon after.
Tensions rose during the period leading to the general elections, which included the Presidential election that produced President Bola Tinubu who won with a comfortable margin; largely due to intra-party squabbles in the camp of the major opposition party, the PDP.
From recent history, the people of the South-East geographical zone have tended to favour belonging to the ruling party and not the party in opposition…
In the run-up to the PDP’s primary election to produce its presidential candidate, an intractable crisis broke out between the party’s main contenders, former Vice-President, Atiku Abubakar and former Governor of Rivers States, Nyesom Wike.
That disagreement has not only remained but has gone from bad to worse.
The unfortunate commentary that Nigeria’s main opposition party, the PDP, is unable to put its house in order, has made it impossible for it to play its constitutional role of checks and balances on the ruling party.
This weakness has also helped it lose membership at both parliament and party membership levels.
And this development seems to be setting the stage for a fait accompli by the ruling APC to win again, if nothing changes to stem the tide and stop the wave of desertions.
President Bola Tinubu came to power in 2023, May 29, promising many reforms and changes under his Renewed Hope Agenda, which is intended to boost the economy and secure lives and property, among others.
His first step at restructuring the economy was the removal of the fuel subsidy regime which hit the general public so badly, as a huge economic shock.
However, there is no doubting the fact that Nigerians would be willing to bear the pain of economic restructuring if there is hope of sustainable security, peace and prosperity on the horizon.
Tinubu’s Renewed Hope Agenda aims to boost agriculture to achieve food security, unlock energy and natural resources for sustainable development, focus on education, infrastructure, health and Social investment, among others.
Many people including multilateral organisations buy into the agenda, if followed through in a prudent and meticulous manner.
President Tinubu believes in his agenda as a solution to Nigeria’s economic problems; and even his ardent followers bet his second-term on it.
And not just a few, but many of the opposition political party leaders and members coming over to APC are not only joining the party in power but the power behind the party, to be able to win the next election.
