2027: Race Between Floundering Opposition and Resolute Incumbent

 

One of the key rituals in any democratic environment is periodic electioneering where the people within such society choose from the various options available to them from the array of platforms and personalities offering themselves for service.
This is the period when the incumbent will present his scorecard to the electorates with a view to seeking a renewal of mandate while the opposition on the other hand will be offering an alternative to the people who would eventually make their choice at the poll.
Nigeria returned to democratic rule in 1999 and it is even acknowledged to be the sixth largest democracy in the world. The current Fourth Republic has been the longest running in the history of the country compared to the three before it that were shortlived due to incessant incursions of the military into politics.
The democratic environment in Nigeria is so unique in the sense that the various gladiators dotting the political landscape usually start their preparations very early compared to some other climes where they have to wait for the whistle of the electoral umpire before commencing their preparations.
Though, not much has been said by the parties and their leaders, a lot of underground moves are ongoing either within the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) or the various opposition political parties ahead of the 2027 poll which is about two and a half years away.
This piece however captures the series of trends and events in the last few months within the polity with the aim of painting likely scenarios that might eventually play out in the build up to the poll.

APC and its attempt to entrench itself
As stated above, the polity has witnessed so much frenzy in the last few months with many pundits busy trying to make sense of the happenings but one common thing remains and that is the ruling APC seems not to be letting down with regards to winning the forthcoming election in a convincing manner. It hopes to achieve this by mopping up many of the various opposition leaders from their parties to the APC.
This has however occurred more within the National Assembly where the major opposition Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) and the Labour Party where many lawmakers elected on the platforms of the parties are daily jumping ship to the APC.
The situation came to a head at the House of Representatives when the Minority Leader Kingsley Chinda lamented the loss of his former members to the APC during a defection of a two-term member, Hon. Amos Magaji, representing Jaba/Zango Kataf Federal Constituency in Kaduna State.
Drama ensued during the announcement of the defection of Magaji as Chinda, strongly opposed, urging the Speaker, Hon. Tajudeen Abbas, to declare Magaji’s seat vacant in line with constitutional provisions.
Citing Section 68(1)(g) of the Constitution, Chinda argued that while lawmakers have the right to switch parties, the law clearly states that such a move carries consequences, including forfeiting their seat.
Magaji is the third PDP lawmaker to defect to the APC since the inauguration of the 10th Assembly, following Chris Nkwonta from Abia State and Eriatheke Ibori-Suenu from Delta State.
Last December, four members of the House of Representatives elected on the platform of the Labour Party (LP) defected to the APC.
The lawmakers, who left Labour Party and the PDP for the APC, include Tochukwu Okere (Imo State); Donatus Mathew (Kaduna State); Bassey Akiba (Cross River State); Iyawu Esosa (Edo State) and Ibori-Suenu (Delta State).
Like Chinda, the Minority Whip, Hon. Ali Isah, had asked the Speaker to declare the seats of the defected lawmakers vacant in line with the same Section 68(1) of the Nigerian Constitution 1999 (as amended).
In the Upper Legislative chambers, the prominent defection into the APC came from the Chairman of the Senate Committee on Reparation and Repatriation, Senator Ned Nwoko (Delta North).
Nwoko’is defection letter was read on the floor by President of the Senate, Senator Godswill Akpabio, recently during plenary of the chamber, saying his move is based on the persistent crises plaguing the PDP.
Before him, the member representing Imo East Senatorial District, Francis Ezenwa, dumped the Labour Party for the APC last July setting the tone for such.
Apart from these National Assemble members, those in the know are of the view that scores of others are on their way to the ruling party as time goes on in the build to the forthcoming election.
In the state legislative chambers, Rivers State leads the pack with 27 members of the state House of Assembly defecting from the PDP to the APC but the ripple effects of the move are yet to die down owing to the legal brickbats that are currently ongoing.
Outside the precincts of the various legislative chambers, the APC has also its charm offensive to the various opposition parties using the twin approaches of stick and carrot to woo the gladiators there to the APC.
In Lagos, which is the base of President Bola Ahmed Tinubu, 5,000 members of the PDP defected to APC in January this year. In Kaduna 00,000 PDP members dumped the PDP, again for the APC ahead of the last Kaduna Local Government polls.
Those that defected came from the southern part of Kaduna State and the same thing is daily occurring in Kano State where the current Deputy Senate President, Senator Jubril Barau has been poaching the ranks of the ruling New Nigeria Peoples Party (NNPP) in the state.
Senator Barau has also been poaching the ranks of the PDP in Kano and has so far succeeded in bringing many of the party’s chieftains into the APC.

APC’s electoral victories

Pundits have argued that the major stimulating factor for the defections into the APC in recent times have been the victories of the party in various elections.
While Governor Lucky Aiyedatiwa retained his seat in Ondo defeating the PDP’s Agboola Ajayi in the hotly contested guber poll, Senator Monday Okpebholo snatched victory from the PDP when he defeated Asue Ighodalo in Edo State.
The victories of the APC in Ondo and Edo states’ governorship elections have further strengthened the hands of the ruling party just as it has also questioned the ability of the various opposition platforms to effectively challenge the APC come 2027.
This has continued to wow the APC and its top hierarchy who have dismissed any form of opposition and have consistently maintained that it would continue to rule the state for some time to come.
National Chairman of the party and former Governor of Kano State, Alhaji Abdullahi Umar Ganduje, recently stated in emphatic terms that APC is working on ‘capturing’ opposition strongholds across the country.
While commissioning the secretariat of the party in Awka, the Anambra State capital recently, Ganduje declared APC’s readiness to unseat Governor Chukwuma Soludo of the All Progressives Grand Alliance (APGA) at the November 8 governorship election.
“We must elevate Anambra to the national political grid; currently, it operates on a rural grid, restraining its developmental pace,” he stressed.
After the Anambra show of strength, Ganduje threw a potshot at the direction of Nasir el-Rufai who had been overtly critical of the current regime in recent times when he impressed it on the former Kaduna State governor and his associates who are promoting a coalition initiative to perish the thought of a likely defeat of the APC in 2027.
Pointedly, he asked the former governor who many believe has been promoting a return of power to the North to perish the idea and wait till 2031 when power is expected to oscillate back to the North.

Opposition’s allegation of APC’s distabilisation plot
The various opposition parties have been accusing the APC of distabilising their ranks to weaken them ahead of the election, a charge the ruling party has continued to deny.
In a recent interview with Saturday Telegraph, the National Publicity Secretary of the NNPP; Mr. Ladipo Johnson said, “Let me make this very clear, I am not directly or pointedly accusing them (the APC) of instigating crises in the opposition parties, what I am saying is that there are some instances that one can visibly see to indicate that.
“I can talk about what I see in my party. We have former members who have been expelled from the party, yet they continue to go around parading themselves as leaders of the party.”
Many chieftains of the PDP have continued to blame the crisis on the ruling party whose National Publicity Secretary, Mr. Felix Morka, absolved his party of complicity, saying PDP is imploding due to internal wrangling.
Morka said it was unfortunate that former presidential candidate, Atiku Abubakar, and other PDP members were not focusing on the party’s internal problems.

Moves to form coalition
The first attempt to form a coalition platform occurred last December when some Northern politicians came together under the aegis of Team New Nigeria (TNN).
National President of the group, Modibbo Yakubun Farakwai, said the decision to pull out of APC was informed by the failure of the President Tinubu administration.
Farakwai stated that his members worked tirelessly with the APC in 2015, to wrest power from the PDP but were disappointed and regretted their actions.
“The TNN has already approached the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC), to commence the process of the party’s registration. We have already come up with a name, TNN.
“We have developed a logo, constitution, manifesto and the flag and submitted it to INEC and now awaiting approval of the INEC to become a political party,” Farakwai said.
That action further crystalised into a broad based platform when politicians from all divides came together at a conference on Strengthening Democracy in Nigeria, which took place recently in Abuja.
Notable among those who attended were the representative of Vice President Kashim Shettima, Dr. Hakeem Baba-Ahmed, the 2023 presidential candidates of both PDP and LP, Atiku Abubakar and Peter Obi, respectively, former governors Obong Victor Attah of Akwa-Ibom, Rotimi Chibuike Amaechi, Rivers, Kayode Fayemi, Ekiti, Mallam Nasir El-Rufai, Kaduna, Emeka Ihedioha, Imo, Abdulfatah Ahmed, Kwara, and Waziri Tambuwa, Sokoto and scores of other.
From their utterances to the communiqué, the contents were laced with vengeance and fury against the APC.
It was obvious that there was more to the gathering than meets the eye in what pundits described as superficial claims to finding the solution to the myriads of challenges bedevilling Nigeria’s democracy.
How far they intend to go in their quest to wrest power from the APC remains to be seen but what is certain is that the next few months will be very interesting times in the country.